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Sellers come out of the woodwork after the rate cuts, buyers not so much. But Montreal, Edmonton, and Winnipeg play with all-time highs.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
It continues despite rate cuts: Prices of single-family homes in Canada fell in September from August (-0.5%) and year-over-year (-2.8%), the sixth year-over-year decline in a row, and were down 16.7% from the peak in March 2022 (actual prices, not seasonally adjusted).
Condo prices fell 1.0% in September from August, and 4.0% year-over-year, and were down 11.4% from their peak, according to data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) today. Condo prices got hit hard particularly in the Greater Toronto Area, falling 2.0% for the month and 7.2% year-over-year, thereby carving out a new three-year low.
Sales and inventory in Canada.
Home sales in Canada rose by 1.9% in September from August, seasonally adjusted. Year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted, home sales rose 6.9%. Compared to the 10-year average for this time of the year, sales were still down 7%.
So the rate cuts by the Bank of Canada – and the lower prices? – nudged buyers a little, off the stalled levels before. But what the rate cuts really did was bring out the sellers.
New listings jumped 4.9% in September from August, with “a burst of new supply” at the beginning of September, “as sellers listed properties in larger than normal numbers for the first weeks of the month,” CREA said today. “Gains were broad-based, with most of the country’s biggest markets topping the list.” New listings have been increasing all year.
Total listings jumped by 16.8% from a year ago, to 185,427 homes in September. Supply ticked down to 4.1 months of sales at the current pace of sales, from 4.2 months in August.
Home prices by market in Canada.
All prices below are prices in Canadian dollars, not seasonally adjusted.
Greater Toronto Area, single-family MLS Home Price Benchmark Index:
Month-to-month: -1.1% to $1,293,300; below October 2021
From peak in February 2022: -18.4%
Year-over-year: -3.5%, fifth month of year-over-year declines in a row.
New listings jumped by 9.8% in September, according to TREBB, and inventory continued to surge, pushing active listings to the highest level since 2009, as the rate cuts have brought out the sellers.
Greater Toronto Area, condo benchmark price:
Month-to-month: -2.0% to $654,300, lowest since October 2021.
From peak in April 2022: -16.6%
Year-over-year: -7.2%, with 20 of the past 21 months booking year-over-year declines.
New listings of condos jumped by 9.9%, pushing up active listings further, as the sellers are coming out of the woodwork:
Hamilton-Burlington metro single family benchmark price (part of the “Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area”):
Month-to-month: -0.4% to $908,000, below where it had been in August 2021
From peak in February 2022: -21.5%
Year-over-year: -0.9%, sixth month in a row of declines.
Hamilton-Burlington metro condo benchmark price:
Month-to-month: -0.1% to $520,600, lowest since September 2021.
From peak in April 2022: -17.7%
Year-over-year: -6.8%, fourth month in a row of year-over-year declines.
Greater Vancouver single-family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: -1.4%, at $2,015,900, below February 2022.
From peak in April 2022: -3.8%
Year-over-year: +0.2%, smallest gain since the drop in June 2023.
Greater Vancouver condo benchmark price:
Month-to-month: -0.8%, to $762,000, below March 2022.
Year-over-year: -0.7%, third year-over-year decline in a row.
Victoria, single-family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: -0.4%, to $1,142,100, below November 2021
From peak in April 2022: -11.6%
Year-over-year: -2.0%, fourth year-over-year decline in a row.
Ottawa, single family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: -0.5% to $729,000, below May 2021
From peak in March 2022: -11.2%
Year-over-year: +0.5%.
Calgary, single family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: -0.7%, second month of declines from the all-time high, to $684,400.
Year-over-year: +8.5%, the smallest gain since July 2023.
Montreal, single family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: +1.7%, to $638,900.
From peak in May 2022: -0.9%
Year-over-year: +5.0%.
Halifax-Dartmouth, single family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: -1.1% to $546,000
From peak in April 2022: -5.9%
Year-over-year: +2.1%.
Edmonton, single-family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: unchanged to $462,400; the last four months were roughly unchanged
Year-over-year: +9.4%
In the 17 years since the peak of the prior bubble in June 2007, the index is up 16%.
Edmonton, condo benchmark price:
Month-to-month: roughly unchanged, at $198,000, first seen in January 2007.
From peak in June 2007: -18%
Year-over-year: +10.7%
Quebec City Area, single-family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: -1.4% to $418,600
Year-over-year: +10.1%
Winnipeg, single-family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: roughly unchanged for third month at $382,200
From peak in March 2022: -1.5%
Year-over-year: +6.3%
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The post The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, September: Biggest Drops in Toronto, Vancouver, Victoria, even Calgary Gives, amid Surge of New Listings. Condos Get Hit Hard appeared first on Energy News Beat.
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