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“The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.”
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
FOMC members voted unanimously today to cut the Fed’s five policy rates by 25 basis points, after the 50-basis point cut at the prior meeting in September:
- Federal funds rate target range to 4.50% – 4.75%.
- Interest it pays the banks on reserves: 4.65%.
- Interest it pays on overnight Reverse Repos (ON RRPs): 4.55%.
- Interest it charges on overnight Repos: 4.75%.
- Primary credit rate: 4.75% (banks’ costs of borrowing at the “Discount Window”).
A 25-basis point rate cut was telegraphed by the Fed’s communications, after many folks in the first days following the monster-cut in September had expected another monster-cut, with more cuts to follow, which triggered some mighty backpedaling by various Fed speakers, including talk of “pausing” either in November or December.
The theme of continued monster-cuts changed when crucial labor market data, GDP, consumer income and spending, the savings rate, and inflation data were revised higher after the rate-cut meeting, and some data came in warmer for September, including inflation, with core CPI rising for the third month in a row, reaching 3.8% annualized, to where by mid-October the no-landing scenario reappeared.
The October jobs report was marred by the Boeing strike, triggering the temporary drop in manufacturing jobs that will bounce back when these workers return to work, and by the hurricanes that temporarily knocked out a large number of jobs in the vast areas where flooding occurred. Those jobs too will bounce back plus some during the clean-up and reconstruction period. And the Fed could see this too.
QT continues at the pace announced in May. The Fed has already shed nearly $2 trillion in assets since it started QT in July 2022. The FOMC’s Implementation Notes today said it would continue to shed assets at the current pace.
What changed in the FOMC’s statement:
The statement changed in some ways, and was left intact in other places, to indicate that upside inflation risks and downside employment risks now “are roughly in balance.” In prior statements, it was still “gaining greater confidence” these risks were moving toward that balance.
Left intact: “Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace.”
New: “Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased…”
Old: “Job gains have slowed…”
Left intact: “…and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.”
New: “Inflation has made progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.” [left out “further” perhaps to indicate that it noticed the recent upticks in month-to-month inflation].
Old: “Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated…”
New: “The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.”
Old: “The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance…”
New: “In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent.”
Old: “In light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent.”
Left intact: “In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”
It was a no-dot-plot meeting. Today was one of the four meetings a year when the Fed does not release a “Summary of Economic Projections” (SEP), which includes the infamous “dot plot” which shows how each FOMC member sees the development of future policy rates. SEP releases occur at meetings that are near the end of the quarter. The next SEP will be released on December 18 after the FOMC meeting.
The whole statement:
“Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; and Christopher J. Waller.”
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The post Fed Cuts by 25 Basis Points, to 4.75% Top of Range, as Telegraphed to Backpedal from Monster Cut. QT Continues appeared first on Energy News Beat.
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