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Oil prices are ending the year very close to where they started the fourth quarter, with very limited movement in the last three months despite some major catalysts.
US oil demand hit a new record high https://t.co/H1KjEpVIoB
— Josh Young (@Josh_Young_1) December 31, 2024
– Global LNG exports grew at the slowest pace since 2015 despite natural gas demand being forecast to grow by around 2.5% this year, with limited capacity additions adding to pricing pressures seen across the year.
– Annual LNG shipments will total 414 million tonnes of LNG in 2024, up a marginal 0.4% compared to the previous year, with the United States posting the same 87 million tonnes as it did in 2023.
– Production ramp-up at two new US liquefaction terminals should boost LNG trade volumes next year, with Venture Global starting up Plaquemines last week and Cheniere producing first gas at Corpus Christi on Monday.
– Russia’s LNG ambitions were derailed by US sanctions that debilitated the 19.8 mtpa Arctic LNG 2 project, therefore Qatar would be the closest competitor of the US as it aims for a 2026 launch of the supergiant North Field East expansion project.
Market Movers
– Portugal’s oil firm Galp Energia (ELI:GALP) reported a fourth light oil reservoir discovery at the Mopane prospect in offshore Namibia, boosting hopes it could genuinely hold 10 billion barrels.
– Colombia’s state-controlled oil firm Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) agreed to buy the remaining 45% share in Colombia’s CPO-09 onshore block from Spanish peer Repsol (BME:REP) for an undisclosed sum.
– Italy’s oil major ENI (BIT:ENI) started the second phase of the Baleine field in offshore Ivory Coast, adding 60,000 b/d in production capacity and effectively doubling the country’s total output.
Tuesday, December 31, 2024
The last quarter of 2024 will go down as one of the most rangebound predictable trading periods in recent history as oil prices traded within a very narrow bandwidth, between $71 and $81 per barrel, for three months that have seen a high-impact OPEC+ meeting, Trump’s re-election, and continuous Chinese doom. ICE Brent futures will end the year at $74 per barrel, a $1 per barrel increase month-over-month, in extremely thin trading.
Puerto Rico Wakes Up in Darkness. Electricity supply across the island of Puerto Rico has collapsed as more than 90% of households were without power on New Year’s Eve, with a lack of investment in post-hurricane infrastructure recovery leaving only one backup plant generating energy.
Cheniere Hits New LNG Milestone. US LNG developer Cheniere Energy (NYSE:LNG) announced it produced first liquefied gas from Stage 3 of the Corpus Christi LNG project, with full commissioning of the 1.5 mtpa capacity Train 1 of the liquefaction facility expected by March 30 next year.
White House Protects Nevada from Drillers. The Biden administration approved a request from the US Forest Service to withdraw 264,442 acres in the Ruby Mountains of northeast Nevada from oil, gas, and geothermal development for 20 years, less than three weeks before Trump’s inauguration.
Iraq Greenlights Key Infrastructure Project. The Iraqi government sanctioned the 2.25 million b/d Basrah-Haditha oil pipeline project that would finally connect oil fields in the south of the country with central regions around Baghdad, with a preliminary price tag penciled in at $4.6 billion.
Russia to Stop Exporting Gas to Moldova. Russia’s gas major Gazprom said it would suspend all pipeline gas exports to Moldova on January 1 due to the country’s unpaid debt, assessed around 710 million, putting an end to some 2 bcm per year of supplies that have been piped via Ukraine.
Beijing Wants More Fuel Oil Levies. The Chinese government plans to raise duties on imported fuel oil from 1 January 2025, lifting the levy from 1% currently to 3%, adding approximately $2 per barrel to the cost of imports for refiners as many used Russian and Iranian fuel oil to replace crude.
Airlines Stocks Rebound from COVID Slump. US airlines have been one of the top stock performers in the energy space as the S&P Supercomposite Airlines Index jumped 60% in 2024, double the annual gain in the S&P 500 Index, with US travel activity beating all previous records.
Hedge Funds Get Bullish Again on Oil. Bullish bets on oil reached a 4-month high after hedge funds and other money managers added their long positions by a further 21,694 lots in the week ended December 24, positioning themselves for potential price spikes as Trump returns to office.
Europe Braces for Cold January Weather. European gas prices have soared to €49 per MWh as the Russia-Ukraine transit saga drags on and weather forecasts indicate a sharp drop in temperatures across Northwest Europe in early January, with the cold snap potentially persisting all next month.
Australian Output to See Plunge in 2025. Australia’s leading oil producer Santos (ASX:STO) will decommission the Ningaloo Vision FPSO next year, putting an end to production at the heavy Van Gogh, Coniston, and Novara offshore fields after less than 15 years in operation.
Nigeria’s Refineries Keep on Coming Back. Nigeria’s 125,000 b/d Warri refinery has resumed operations after a decade of shutdowns, initially blamed on dilapidation and crude shortages, the second NNPC-operated downstream asset in the country that was brought back to life in 2024.
EV Battery Costs Collapse on Cheap Metals. The raw materials bill for an average EV battery now stands around $510 compared to $1900-2000 at the beginning of 2023, driven by lithium’s 75% plunge but also boosted by declining prices for cobalt and nickel, down 34% and 25%, respectively.
Top Performer Cocoa Set to Rise Higher. Cocoa, the best-performing commodity of 2024 boosting an annual gain of 175%, is set for further growth in 2025 as farmers in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, reported a deterioration in crop quality amidst intense rains and Harmattan winds.
The post Oil Prices Remain Rangebound as 2024 Draws to a Close appeared first on Energy News Beat.
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