EU on Trump-Greenland

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:10] What’s going on, everybody? Welcome into the Thursday, January 9th, 2025, edition of the Daily Energy News. Beat Stand Up. Here are today’s top headlines. First up, Chevron targets 6 to 8 billion in free cash flow growth by 2026. News flash, it ain’t building wind farms, I’ll tell you that much. Next up, salt typhoon stirs panic in Washington. Biden had to change his depends. Unbelievable. Well, then, jump overseas. Hungary blames Ukraine for rising gas prices in EU. Europe then reacts to Trump’s threat to buy Greenland. This one is absolutely hilarious. We’ll jump back into the U.S.. Alaska Sues Biden Administration over oil and Gas Drilling leases in the Arctic Refuge. Otherwise known as an war Stu Then toss it over to me. I will quickly cover what happened in the oil and gas markets, mainly covering what was sort of a pretty precipitous drop in prices relative to where sentiment has been. EIA came out and posted a smaller than expected, but still a draw in crude oil inventories at then. Guys, I keep telling you about these midstream transactions. We saw another one today. We will cover all that and a bag of chips. Guys, as always, I’m Michael Tanner, joined by Stuart Turley. Where do you want to begin? [00:01:28][77.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:28] Hey, let’s start with one of my favorite topics, free cash flow. Chevron targets 6 to 8 billion in free cash flow growth by 2026 is well positioned Chevron Corporation and they are a United States corporation is well positioned to grow its free cash flow. A Chevron CEO, Michael Wirth, announced on Wednesday they are America’s second largest oil and gas and they expect to achieve these results thanks to the new Start or expanded oil production in Kazakhstan. Growth in US shale and offshore U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Pretty impressive. [00:02:08][40.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:09] Yeah, very impressive. I mean, obviously Chevron is hoping to pick up Hess. And I think a lot of what they’re hoping for in that growth is is closing this Hess deal, which is still in arbitration, as we know. If you need to go check out the deal spotlight where me and Bennett covered all that that we’ll know somewhere in Q3 whether or not they actually are able to acquire has obviously the prized possession from has is their 30% stake in the guy on a field. So it’ll be very interesting and it’s part of the reason why they went ahead and did that. That’s again where most of the growth is going to come from. We did see a quote from John Haas, who’s the CEO and chairman over there saying we are, quote, confident the merger is going to happen and we’re getting prepared for that. But if you ask Exxon, they’ll tell you, well, we wrote the deal. We know what the intent was. But intent and legal are different. So it’ll be very interesting. And but who knows, too, obviously, Chevron, is it going out and building wind farms? [00:03:03][54.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:03] I know that would be the their counterparts in the EU and the UK. [00:03:09][5.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:03:09] It would be. All right. What’s next? He sold typhoons. [00:03:12][2.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:13] So Typhoon Stirs Panic in Washington. This article is really about China’s hacking threat, but yet nobody is really talking about China’s hacking threat to the United States grid. Michael, this is really frightening. The full extent of Beijing’s success is not yet public, but there’s been steady coverage about the number of affected providers and the extent of the breaches since the reports about a severe salt typhoon cyber attack last September. Here’s part of the problem. The telephone companies and the telephony companies that sell off any equipment that is in there is Chinese is susceptible to hacking. The Biden administration put back in all of the Chinese equipment that is controlled remotely by the Chinese after the balloons attach to it. That’s why this is an energy security at its finest waiting to happen. Holy smokes, Batman. President Trump, if you’re listening to this podcast, get that Chinese crap out of the grid. [00:04:23][69.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:04:23] Yeah, I mean, I doubt he’s listening, but if he is, yes, that’s great advice. It would be great advice. And we are. I mean, these this is crazy. You know the and you know, these these government hacks that are coming from China signal clearly they want war. And what that does to energy prices is anybody’s guess because we’ve seen the back and forth sanctioning of U.S. oil and Chinese oil companies. So what does that actually do? Who knows? [00:04:51][27.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:51] Yeah, it’s just a mess. And when you have the cables being cut in the last few days around Taiwan, then you have all the other things. There is just way too much. That’s why this article is important and that’s why I picked it for today. Let’s go to Hungary the blame game. This you cannot buy this kind of entertainment. Hungary blames Ukraine for rising prices in EU. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter. I’m going to butcher his last name. Holy smokes, this is so loud. You blame rising natural gas prices that all sound like Scooby or Shaggy. I guess. I’m not sure which gas prices in the EU, which you described as artificially reduced supply. You have to remember that it is. Ukraine did not sign the extension. Russia was willing to sign the extension. And here’s where it gets dicey. Michael, this brings out to the point that if Putin actually had that contract, he would be more interested in stopping the Ukraine war because there would be cash flow in there now that there’s not a cash flow in there. President Trump, all he has for dealmaking is the stolen Russian assets. All of this is not talked into that this article. So President Trump is what I thought he would be coming into a stronger ability to negotiate a settlement immediately has now turned into Putin is better off just ignoring the West and booming all of his gas supply to China and Asia. So this story is got some hidden nuggets in it that most people won’t catch. So let’s go to the next one here. Europe reacts to Trump’s threat to Greenland. You can’t buy their head popping around the world. Borders not must not be moved by force, a spokesperson for the German government said on Wednesday. Coming from the German blitzkrieg government, there is no question the EU’s letting other nations in the world who they ever may be attacking sovereign borders. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen urged caution Tuesday night. As a very close ally of the United States, I think there’s reason to welcome the growing American interest, but it must be done in a way that respects the Greenlandic people, she told Danish media. I think the Danish folks, the Greenland people, Greenlandic people are excited. I think that they would definitely be all in. And when you take a look at the geostrategic importance of Greenland, I’m all in because it would stop the strip mining that the Chinese are already doing. So I’m in. [00:07:37][166.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:38] Yeah, it is weird to think about that. We’re obviously not going to take military force to Greece to say that’s going to happen. That’s just it’s disingenuous now. Or would we put pressure on Greenland to possibly vote to get out of Denmark’s control and come to the U.S.? Maybe. I think the issue is Greenland wants to become an independent nation regardless. Now, the question is, do they have enough revenue? I mean, do they have enough of an economy to do that with all of their natural minerals? The answer is yes. It’s part of the reason why, again, the United States wants it. They want all that money. Let’s again go back to it’s all about money. You know, it’s not about, we’d love to have the Greenlandic People’s Party again. We could give a hoot about those people for the money. [00:08:18][40.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:20] Let’s let’s take a little bit of a walk in history here for a second. The Panama Canal. The Panama Canal was Panama was actually owned by Colombia in that area. Down in there, it was a different country and we wanted the canal. So what did we do? We started a government. We forced a new voluntarily new government of Panama. And we interfered in there until we got our Panama. And when we got the new government, we got the canal. So we have done that in the past. [00:08:54][33.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:54] Yeah, no, absolutely. So it’ll be very interesting to see. All right, Let’s move to Anwar. What’s going on in Alaska? [00:08:59][4.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:00] This one. I’m telling you right now, I hats off to Alaska for suing the Biden administration over the oil and gas drilling leases in the Arctic Refuge. We have got to stand up to these policies, and it has to come from the leaders of oil and gas. Companies are now suing and stopping woke things. It’s now got to come from the state governors as well, too. This is a quote. The interior continued irrational opposition under the Biden administration to responsible energy development in the Arctic continues an America of a path of energy dependance. Instead of utilizing the vast resources we have made available. This brings up a huge issue that the Biden administration has done and that the law fair. Even though you had said on your podcast when you did your individual one that it was, well, it might or may not. The fact is it’s going to take years to undo all of the travesty that the Biden administration has done because the lawsuits are horrific. We have over 200 judges by Biden and Obama that are still in there that are holding. A lot of this crap up, so it’s going to be painful. Hats off to the Alaskan government for doing that. [00:10:14][74.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:10:14] No, they’re standing up for the people. I mean, they’re they’re one of they’re the only state that actually does receive an oil and gas distribution directly to their citizens. So they do love their oil and gas up there. And there was there was a responsible way to develop Anwar. There is. [00:10:28][14.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:29] There is. And we do that better than anybody else on the planet. [00:10:32][3.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:10:32] Yep, absolutely. All right, guys, let’s go ahead and cover finances real quick before we do that, we’ve got to pay the bills. As always, thank you for checking us out on the world’s greatest website. www. Energy News Beat the best place for all your energy and oil and gas news. Stu and the team do a tremendous job making sure that website stays up to speed. Everything you need to know to be the tip of the spear when it comes to the energy in the oil and gas business. Go ahead and hit the description below for all links to the timestamps. Links to the articles, give us a follow on substack. Guys. Best place. Best excuse me, best place to support the show. It’s been a long day, folks. I’ve talked to. It’s but truly it’s the best place to support us. If you do, we just drop a subscriber. Only a paid subscriber only article. Our infamous mines mineral model that I’ve been a part of now and been teasing for a few days. It is live on Substack you get the first, you get the abstract in the first paragraph for free. Otherwise you’re going to need to subscribe as a member to be able to see it. It’s an awesome article really covering where and how much minerals we actually need to pull off these energy transition scenarios. Spoiler alert it’s a lot at then we’ll be following it up next weeks with the paper specifically taking that mine’s mineral model and saying, okay, if we apply a traditional capital asset pricing model on top of that, are some are there some investment insight that we can gain from this? I’m highly recommend checking that out again via Substack. You can also subscribe to us and please do that on YouTube and leave us a comment on Spotify. If you are listening and I know it’s the new year, but it’s never too early, guys, to think about 2025 taxes and think about 2025 cash flow. So if you guys are interested and need and want to start planning your 2025, write, do it by investing in oil and gas, Become Billy Bob Thornton from Land Man. Get yourself some working interest. Go to invest in energy.Energy news beat.com. Our project and the project where we’re helping with filling up fast guys. So if you want to get in before we end up closing it, go ahead and email us any at or go to that link and we will get you all the info you need. [00:12:31][118.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:31] Let’s jump over those, Stu. And just, you know, top line indices here. S&P 500 basically flat up a 10th of a percentage point. Nasdaq basically flat two and ten year yields, flat dollar index up about a third of a percent. Bitcoin dropped another 2%, 94,760 crude oil was down about basically a full dollar down to 73, 30, 32. That’s a 1.5% drop. Brant Oil was down a little less, about 7/10 of a percentage point down to 7625 natural gas jump, five percentage points all the way up to $3.65 or so contract, which is an effort designed to map all of our exploration and production public companies. That was up about 6/10 of a percentage point one 3767 You know, really what we saw with prices was a disconnect between what the API crude oil inventory guesstimate was yesterday. They were predicting about a 4 million barrel drop. What we saw today was about a 1.2 million barrel drop. So that’s mainly where a lot of the drawdown comes from. Was was we were expecting a much bigger draw and it never ended up working out that way. We also did see a build in fuel oil and distillates, which is a good as we move into the winter months, but it definitely doesn’t help prices. We did see as well, this is a quote by BMI analysts. We are holding our forecasts for Brant crude average 76 and 2025, which is down from an average of 80 in 2020. For this bearish view is being led by a fundamental data forecast which points to an oversupply this year, with supply growth outstripping demand by 485,000 barrels per day. All that is courtesy BMI analysts and our friend of the show, Irina Slob. So thank you very much over there. And we can go ahead and just throw up the crude oil inventory sheet. As you can see, we are down a full 1.2 million barrels. Some other interesting stuff we did see if we look here, we did see distillate fuel oil up 6.1 million barrels. So that’s where a lot of that comes from. Domestic production ended up at 13.6 million or 13.5 million barrels per day, which is pretty unbelievable. Lower 48 checked in at 13.1 million barrels. [00:14:34][122.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:34] Finally, guys, I’ve been telling you about this midstream stuff and Cap Flat Rock Midstream competes two transactions with Plains, all American. They announced today that they have two separate agreements to sell Ironwood Midstream Energy Partners to otherwise known as Ironwood to an all E at r f m, which is in fact Rock Midstream owned in Outstanding Plains series A preferred units to plains all American LP for $800 million in cash money. These are expected to close in the first quarter of 2025. Again if you guys. Aren’t getting the picture. These midstream companies are selling to the larger conglomerate because the larger conglomerates can buy them at, you know, what would be theoretically higher valuations. They can integrate them with their infrastructure, lower their operating costs and still make money on a higher valuation. Whereas the piggyback companies say this is the highest valuation, we think we’re going to get the next 3 to 5 years. We need to sell and achieve some liquidity. So I’m not saying I was right, but I also kind of am. So again, I would watch out for more of these. I think we’re going to see a few more. [00:15:38][63.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:38] What are you running from? [00:15:39][0.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:39] First quarter of 25. What’s up? You’re telling me you’re running? [00:15:41][2.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:42] Yeah. When are you running for office? [00:15:43][1.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:44] I trust me, I’m the last person you want running for office. I’m barely qualified enough to host this podcast, but we appreciate everybody who listens. Last show. The week’s Do what? Any. Any over the weekend predictions. We’ll have our weekly recap which drops Saturday Friday. What a way is any podcast coming out on Friday? [00:16:03][19.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:16:04] Yes, we’ve got several. I’ve got a George McMillan coming out. We also have a David Blackman coming out and we have next week Mark K, he is the Mark K Show coming out and we have A2I have three people that are prime marrying other Republicans lined up and we’re rolling like we have Duncan Alexander and we have a few others that are starting to roll through. So if you are a America first and you are taking on a Republican and you are going after anybody and you’re starting your primary campaign, I want to talk to you because I want to know about your energy policies. And we want to start helping spread the word for folks. [00:16:43][39.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:16:44] Yep, absolutely, guys. So with that, we will let you get out of here. Start your day. Right. We appreciate you always checking it out here. We will see you on Saturday for our weekly recap. And then we’ll be back in the chair on Monday to break it all down, guys. But we’ll let you get out of here for Stuart Turley on Michael Tanner. We’ll see you Saturday. [00:16:44][0.0][980.8]

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