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Splash has obtained an advanced copy of the tentative ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, expected to be agreed upon shortly. Shipping analysts contacted by Splash, however, remain cautious on prospects for a swift resumption of merchant trade along the Red Sea.
Qatar has been hosting indirect talks between the two sides who have been at war for more than 400 days. The ceasefire agreement is split into three phases, each phase lasting 42 days. After this six-month ceasefire, a huge reconstruction plan is planned for the Gaza Strip over the next three to five years, led by Egypt, Qatar, and the United Nations.
In support of Hamas, the Houthis from Yemen initiated a campaign against merchant ships passing through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, targeting more than 100 ships since November 2023, leading to a major rerouting for most ships heading between Asia and Europe. The ensuing Red Sea shipping crisis was selected by Splash editorial staff as the top news item of 2024. The Houthis have repeatedly stated their campaign will continue until Israeli forces leave Gaza.
“Previous ceasefire announcements have amounted to nothing. I would err on the side of caution,” commented Mark Williams, who heads up UK consultancy, Shipping Strategy. “Even if a ceasefire were to take hold, the Houthi have one good reason to continue their campaign, which is that it keeps their cause in the public eye and gives them a bargaining chip in any negotiations.”
Lars Jensen, who heads up container consultants Vespucci Maritime, has been providing his 144,000 followers on LinkedIn with daily updates on the Red Sea shipping crisis.
Like Williams, he erred on the side of caution when contacted by Splash.
“I would expect carriers to be cautious. They need to see the ceasefire holds up. And they need to see that this is sufficient for the Houthis to stop attacking,” Jensen said, adding: “Going back to Suez only to have to revert a few weeks later if the ceasefire does not hold up would be highly detrimental – especially in the midst of also phasing in the new networks.”
Liner shipping is due to go through its biggest alliance shake-up in a decade at the end of this month with carriers shuffling their groupings.
Speaking with Splash yesterday, Guy Platten, the secretary-general of the International Chamber of Shipping, said: “It is clearly positive if Israel and Hamas are moving towards agreeing a ceasefire. However, shipping needs to maintain its watch until any final agreement is reached and verified. We also need to monitor closely the response from the Houthis.”
Platten also stressed that the seafarers from the Galaxy Leader are not forgotten and are released as part of any sustained ceasefire deal. The Galaxy Leader, a car carrier (pictured), and its crew were hijacked by the Houthis 14 months ago.
There have been no confirmed ship strikes by the Houthis in 2025 so far, with the militant group focusing its attacks on Israel directly with drones and missiles. Houthi military installations have come in for increased aerial attacks in recent weeks from Israeli, US, and UK planes.
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