Reserve Refill Begins

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Daily Standup Top Stories

Highlights of the Podcast

00:00 – Intro

01:43 – Chris Wright Moves to Refill The Strategic Petroleum Reserve

05:03 – Canada’s Final US Energy Tariff Warning to Donald Trump – “A Snow Mexican Standoff”

07:22 – Sanctions Are Tangling, Not Stopping, China’s Iran Oil Trade

09:05 – Heavy Industry Is Europe’s Trump Card

11:14 – The Undervalued Energy Boom: Why Natural Gas and Commodities Are Set to Skyrocket

14:17 – Markets Update

17:59 – Rig Count Update

19:03 – Outro

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:10] What’s going on, everybody? Welcome into the Monday, March 10th, 2025 edition of the Daily Energy Newsbeat standup. Here are today’s top headlines. First up, Chris Wright moves to refill the strategic petroleum reserve long overdue. Next up, Canada’s final US energy tariff warning to Donald Trump, a snow Mexican standoff. This one, obviously, it’s a stew headline, no doubt. Next up, sanctions are tangling, not stopping. China and Iran’s oil trade will stick over there in Europe. Heavy industry is Europe’s trump card. And finally, in the news segment, the undervalued energy boom, why natural gas and commodities are set to skyrocket. This is based on a great interview that Stu did with one of our favorite, favorite companies, Samara Partners and Laydiff. So we will cover all that. Stu will then jump over to me. I will quickly cover what happened in the oil and gas markets last week, you know, specifically talking about rig counts. I mean, I was gone all last week, so I feel like I’ve got so much pent up things I need to talk about. Oil took an absolute dump based upon some stuff that Trump said. So we will cover all that in a bag of chips too. I am excited to be back. I appreciate you holding the fort down. [00:01:25][75.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:26] It was a lot of fun. Believe me, I heard some trolling going on and everything else goes, where’s Michael? I’m like, he’s out working. I’m out having to hold the Ford down. [00:01:34][8.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:01:34] I’m trying to make a buck for us, but it was OK. It was a great time out in Beverly Hills of the Family Offices Conference. All right, Stu, enough grandation, though. Where do you want to begin? [00:01:42][7.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:43] Let’s start with Chris Wright. I’ll tell you, Chris Wright is the right man for the right job. And boy, that’s a pun. Chris Wright moves to refill the strategic petroleum reserve. This article came from one of my favorite guys on the planet. He is David Blackman’s substack. This is an outstanding article on the SBR. And Michael, I just want to tell you that it was treasonous of the Biden administration to deplete the SPR because the SPR, the strategic oil reserve was created in the 70s by Congress and Richard Nixon in response to the first Arab embargo. But the Arab, David points out very, you know, in this article, the salt caverns and the storage system cannot handle much more. It’s only good for two to four in and out refills. And they’ve been using this as a piggy bank for votes to get the oil prices down. So let’s go through some of the numbers real quick. So when you take a look at it, the SPR has a total capacity of 797 million barrels of oil, which is 33 days of U .S. consumption, but it’s about four months of U .S. crude imports because we – [00:03:05][81.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:03:04] And I think that’s a critical piece to point out that everyone says, well, it’s only 30 days of consumption. Yes, but we also make a majority of our own oil here, meaning that really what we’re trying to do is make sure that imports will go to zero. We’ve got a four to six month backstop, in this case, four months. [00:03:23][18.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:23] And you’re having to understand that the reason that we import is to blend for our refineries because of the lack of investments in upgrading the refineries to being able to use our own oil. So when you take a look at that Biden people desperate to mitigate losses in the 2020 midterm elections chose to draw down the reserve to the 340 million barrels. Right now, it only holds just around 395 million barrels. Now, Reuters put out that it is going to take years. And Chris Wright is looking at about $20 billion to fill this. Could take 10 years. But I think legislation has to be put in where this is no longer a piggy bank or political game. [00:04:13][50.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:04:14] I completely agree with you. The real question is, what does Doge think of this? Because we’re trying to cut slice and dice, everything out of the budget. The question is, are you going to be able to find 20 billion if you need to take 30 % of the budget and chop 30 % of the budget off, or are we even going to find 20 billion? I would argue we need to. The question is, where is it going to come from? What piggy bank is it going to come from? I think we’ll be able to find it, but I think it would be very interesting to see what Elon and Doge, if they’re able to fit this in. Because I agree with you. We need this. It’s critical for both national security, it’s critical for energy security, but I hope it doesn’t get axed when it comes up, when Doge comes around to it. [00:04:50][35.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:50] And so I think this is just as critical for President Trump in this House and Senate to get done as well as voting reform. I put these two equally up there. So let’s go to the next story here. You can’t buy this kind of entertainment, Michael. Canada’s final US energy tariff warning to Donald Trump. We’re filming this on Sunday morning, a snowy Mexican standoff, a snow Mexico standoff, Mexican standoff. I get tickled when everybody is calling Canada and they snow Mexico. So here’s where it is. Doug Ford is the prime minister up there and we have a lot of customers that are going to be impacted on this. Canada will enact a 25 % energy flowing into parts of US Ontario premier Doug Ford, said as US President Trump, Ford plows on with his trade war. And I guarantee you, listen to this. The 25 percent tariff from Ontario hits 1 .5 million homes in Michigan, New York, Minnesota. It’s a retaliation move against U .S. tariffs. And despite Trump’s suspension of trade levies, Ontario’s premier Doug Ford is pushing ahead on Monday. This is going to affect grid reliability. And I think it’s really stupid to get into a fight with President Trump. [00:06:14][83.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:14] Yeah, I do think that this is going to hurt energy prices. I do think the markets are in a little bit of a, they’re a little bit in limbo right now with, you know, tariffs are on, tariffs are off, we’re going to do this, then we’re going to do that. You know, really what the markets need is a signal, this is what we’re going to do and we’re going to stick to it. If we’re going to put tariffs on, great, stick with them. The idea that they’re on, then they’re off, then they’re back on, like a high school relationship, it does not give the markets the clarity that it needs. And we saw it all last week, not just with oil prices, but with the overall markets of itself, they were up, they were down, really on the backs of a lot of this stuff. So I really hope both Canada and the US can come together, come to some sort of agreement. And if that’s a reciprocal tariff, 10 % each going one way and going the other, I’m fine with that. I’m not anti -tariff. I am very anti on, off, on, off. Again, it’s like we’re in a high school relationship here. [00:07:04][49.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:04] I couldn’t agree more, Michael, and I’m going to give President Trump a little bit of room because we’ve had 70 years of inequitable trade balances he’s trying to fix. So I’m willing to hang with him. [00:07:18][13.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:18] You’re siding with Trump? [00:07:19][0.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:20] What’s next? Hey, let’s Trump, baby. Let’s go to sanctions are tangling, but not stopping China’s Iran oil trade. This is a huge story when you take a look at the Iranian oil shipments to China have been on the rise. Take a look at the chart for this article came from Bloomberg. And you take a look at from 2013 all the way up to 2024. That’s a lot of millions of barrels per day We’re going to China, baby. [00:07:51][30.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:52] It’s it’s clear you’re talking about China is the one country that’s going to buy sanctioned oil, whether it’s from Russia, whether it’s from Iran. And that’s really where when when the Trump administration says we need to get Iranian oil supplies down to zero, it’s really dealing with China. Oh, absolutely. But there’s a site. [00:08:08][16.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:08] note to this fleet that I want to have just as in there. You can go take a look at the article on energy newsbeat .co, but take a look at these numbers. We also need to have a secretary right. Take a look at the import. California imports 60 % of its crude oil from foreign countries. That is despicable. Now they say according to records that none it comes from Iran, it does come from Iraq. Now, I disagree because I’ve got sources that are telling me that Iraq and Iran have been working together in the dark fleet and I’ve got records of it. So we really don’t know how much of this is coming in, but they have other countries that they’ve been buying that are sanctioned and they’ve been buying sanctioned oil. So we’re talking about some serious hypocrite issues for the Department of Energy to take a look at. Absolutely. All right, what’s next? Let’s go to heavy industry is Trump’s card. I get tickled at this one. This is a interesting article from Sandier Tordier. I hope I didn’t butcher his name. Sand it’s it. You did, but it’s fine. He won’t listen to the podcast for European leaders. Meeting the historic moment will mean preparing to defend their national interests of their own president Trump pulling out of NATO and defund. We are what 70 % of the NATO budget. I think that this is going to be, and then you have a president Zelensky going and making a deal with the UK and then you all of a sudden have a France ready to send their nuclear weapons to Ukraine. And this is a mess. And I think that we are doing the right thing by getting out of NATO in its current form because NATO helped start this entire problem. The leadership in NATO. We don’t need to be funding this mess. Right now we’re funding both sides of the war. We’re funding NATO and we’re funding Ukraine and we’re funding everything else. So I am glad that we’re taking a hard look at whether or not we need to be funding NATO and the UN. THROW EM OUT! [00:10:18][129.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:10:18] Yeah, absolutely. And I think a lot of this, you know, comes off the back of that, you know, that pretty wild meeting in the Oval Office with Zelensky, Vance, and Trump. I mean, that was talk about talk about wild. I mean, and [00:10:30][12.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:30] And I have confirmed sources, Michael, that deals were made. Not only did he not sign the deal, the Ukrainian parliament said for him to sign the deal. It was approved and they’re upset. The other thing is he turned around and signed deals, not in approval of the Ukrainian people with the UK and offered it to the EU. So I want to know is the Ukrainian critical minerals already agreed to by other countries. I think it’s a mess. [00:11:02][31.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:02] No, I think it’s a big mess and it was wild to see that play out last week. I’m sad I wasn’t able to make that episode because I’ve got some thoughts on that. Don’t worry. But let’s go ahead and move to the next one. What’s going on with our last one? [00:11:14][11.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:14] Hey, I want to give was a relative complete shout out. He’s the head guy over there at Samaria Partners. And he is a classy, knowledgeable guy that I really respect. And there’s some big the article is the undervalued energy boom. Why natural gas and commodities are set to skyrocket. And I just want to give him a shout out because this was a fantastic podcast. some of the things that we talked about in there are Bill Gates and Black Rock actually accepting natural gas. We’re seeing that we’re not going to make the energy demand without the natural gas to power plants coming online. We also, I’m going to give a shout out to Stuart Turley. Turley’s law, more renewables. Every time we spend more, a dollar in renewable energy, we spend more money in fossil fuels. I just want to give myself a shout out since I know what I’m doing. And then the key investments in uranium, copper and industrial growth. This is an outstanding podcast and I just wanna give a shout out. [00:12:23][68.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:23] No, absolutely. We really appreciate both him and his co -founder, Carl. We love Carl over there, guys. Highly recommend checking out if you’re interested in getting in on the energy boom. They have a great EFT they just launched. So we’ll put all of that links to that in the description below. But let’s go ahead and jump over. [00:12:40][16.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:12:40] quickly. Go ahead. One quick thing with the natural gas to power. Huge, huge demand is also Steve Reese sent me a note and this is bringing up a gigantic issue, the workforce and training and Steve Reese is also a sponsor. You’ll go into that here in a second, but training is huge. [00:13:00][19.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:01] No, absolutely. We need to be trained. That’s a great segue into paying the bills. So let’s go ahead and do that. As always, thank you for checking us out at the world’s greatest website, www.energynewsbeat .com. Stu and the team do a tremendous job making sure that website stays up to speed. Everything you need to know to be the tip of the spear when it comes to the energy and the oil and gas business. Go ahead and hit that description below for all links to the timestamps, links to the articles. A special shout out, as Stu mentioned it, to sponsor of the show, Reese Energy Consulting and our friends over there. They guys, they are all things natural gas. If you need help with your marketing contracts, call them. If you need help with training for LNG, call them up with their sister firm, American Gas Partners. If you’re looking to launch a large infrastructure project in the midstream space or the LNG space, call Reese Energy Consulting as we cannot recommend them enough. We love everybody over there, so we appreciate them helping keep the lights on over here. And then finally, guys, if you are interested in becoming Billy Bob Thornton from Landman, as always, guys, it’s never too early to start thinking about your 2025 tax bill. Put a little monthly dividends in your pocket and be able to say you’re Billy Bob Thornton from Landman. Go ahead and check out investinoil.energynewsbeat .com. We will get you hooked up with all the information. For that,. [00:14:17][75.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:17] Let’s go look at the markets. Last week was pretty wild, as I mentioned. Stocks were up, they were down, left, right, because of all this tariff stuff. So, so I think the markets are, you know, one thing the markets love is steady, whether it’s good steady or bad steady. So it’ll be interesting to see S &P 500 did end, was up about half a percentage point there on Friday, NASDAQ was up about three tenths of a percentage point, two in 10 year yields fairly flat. We did see Bitcoin have a pretty rough week. It’s down to $82 ,000. So still not a terrible, terrible overall number, but not great crude oil actually jumped about one percentage points up to 6704, but absolutely took a thrashing this week, mainly due to the fact that OPEC decide they’re going to bring on 180 ,000 barrels per month for the next 24 months until they get all the way up to that 2 .2 million barrels. Now, I think a lot of the people are speculating that they’ll never actually get to the 2 .2 million barrels, that they’ll slowly bring this up. Because Brent now dropped to basically $70, Saudi Arabia and a lot of these Middle Eastern countries need actually higher oil prices to balance their budgets. It’s not just necessarily from their national oil company standpoint, it’s that the Government needs the dividends from owning these companies in order to fund their social programs. And so it’ll be interesting to see how long that takes. We did see a natural gas jump pretty tremendously. It was up 2 .2 percentage points now trading at $4 .03. That was really last week. I mean, last week, a lot, a lot happened, but really the overarching war was trade risks and OPEC supply increase. And that’s really what tanked oil prices this week. And again, if you had told me three years ago, we’d be sad about $67 oil. I’d have said you were crazy because we were sitting here at $20 oil wonder and if we could just get to 50, we might be able to make a buck. So I think it’s hard to say, it’s hard to be sad, even though I do think we’re running into a very interesting conundrum where a lot of the new inventory that is about to be drilled is actually fairly, is barely economic at these prices. So I do think the drill, you’re seeing a lot of re -shifting of where I think these people’s, the drill plans are. Trump did say in a famed truth social post that he was quote, strongly considering sanctions on Russian banks and tariffs on Russian products because of its armed forces continue a attack on Ukraine. That’s in light of what is hoped to be a failed ceasefire with Ukraine last week. I think it’s very interesting. And again, the big news was the fact that OPEC was going to add 138 ,000 barrels, sorry, I’m a little dyslexic, 138 ,000 barrels per day back to the market over each month. You know, you know, Scott Bassett, who’s the U .S. trekkers, said today did did did again reaffirm that they are trying to drive Iranian crew exports down to quote a trickle. They’re considering a plan to inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea, which I think is going to be tough. But, you know, you’re starting to send people out to the dark fleet. It’s going to be very interesting. You know, we did see on Thursday Trump suspended the 25 percent tariff on on most goods from Canada and Mexico through April 2nd, though aluminum and steel tariffs will still take attention. Mark 12. And I think that’s the other interesting part here. Steel is one of the biggest costs of drilling a new well. I mean, think about all the casing, think about all the steel that goes into a new well. So you have prices going down, you have prices of drilling a well go up, you end in this real pickle for oil and gas companies where they love Trump, but now they’re seeing their prices go up from a drilling standpoint and the prices they’re receiving at the well head go down. It makes for a very interesting conundrum when it comes to, do we go drill these wells for production growth? or do we, you know, and hope that as prices move, you know, in the next two, three years, we’ll catch up. The problem is on a horizontal well, you only get, it’s about six months worth of real cashflow before these things peter out. So I think it’s a very interesting situation. A lot of these oil executives are in and we’ll see what they decide to do. Let’s go ahead and throw up rig counts here. We did see rig counts drop on Friday. Just one rig was shed. We’re down to 592 rigs, still down from about 30 year over year. So nothing too crazy there. Outside of just finishing up earnings too, there wasn’t anything too crazy. We did see Expand Energy, which is Southwestern and Chesapeake new combined code. They’re going to be entering the S &P 500. So that’s awesome. But nothing really new on the oil front. No real big M &A’s. I know we’re looking at a lot of stuff here. It’s kind of that dull moment as we move into the summer. But yeah, outside of oil prices, not much really happened last week. So what, from your end, what should people be worried about this week? Oh, I – [00:18:34][257.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:34] I think we’re going to keep an eye on the right sizing of tariffs and see how all this kind of plays out. And you know, I’m willing also to give Pam Bondi time on the Epstein files. I think people are ready to find out just how bad our government has been, and I’m willing to let the DOJ get her feet running. So I think we’re going to be on the road for a fantastic 2025. [00:19:02][27.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:19:03] Absolutely, guys. With that, we’re going to let you get out of here. Get back to work. Start your week. We appreciate you starting your week with the energy newsbeat for Stuart Turley and Michael Tanner. We’ll see you tomorrow, folks. [00:19:03][0.0][1122.3]

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