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“Spark30S (Atlantic) freight rates experienced a significant week-on-week drop for the first time in two months, decreasing by $2,750 to $28,350 per day,” Spark’s data lead, Qasim Afghan, told LNG Prime on Friday.
He said that Spark25S (Pacific) rates “remained relatively steady this week at $27,500 per day.”
In January and February 2025, LNG charter rates plummeted to an minimum of 5,000 per day, down from an average of about 40,000/day in 2024, driven by a surplus of vessels and low demand in Asia reducing the average journey distance for marginal Atlantic supply as cargoes flocked to Europe, Timera Energy said in a report on Thursday.
However, recent market dynamics have spurred a recovery in these rates, including European LNG demand and supply risks and vessel availability.
Despite entering winter with strong gas inventories, a cold Q1 2025 led to significant drawdowns in Europe, prompting restocking efforts ahead of summer.
Timera Energy said this low level of stock and the cessation of Russian pipeline deliveries through Ukraine necessitated a greater proportion of US cargoes heading to the Atlantic basin as the US front-month arb pointed toward Europe.
“We are now seeing a reversal in this relationship, Asian prices recovering relative to Europe, increasing journey distance, and aligning with the single day change of +$11,250 in Spark 30S rates on February 28,” it said.
In addition, earlier in the year, an oversupply of LNG carriers hit the water due to the commissioning of new vessels without the export capacity to fulfil their volumes, suppressed charter rates.
“As some US export projects are ramping up (Plaquemines, Corpus Christi Stage 3) this surplus has partly been absorbed, tightening vessel availability and contributing to the recent uptick in charter rates,” Timera said.
In Europe, the SparkNWE DES LNG dropped compared to $12.988/MMBtu last week.
“The SparkNWE DES LNG front month price for April dropped by $0.629 to $12.359/MMBtu, whilst the discount to the TTF widened by $0.045 to -$0.68/MMBtu,” Afghan said.
He said, “the US arb to NE-Asia (via the Cape of Good Hope) decreased by $0.128 to -$0.488/MMBtu: the lowest front month US arb assessment in over a month and continuing to incentivise US cargoes to deliver to Europe.”
“The Nigerian front month arb to NE-Asia has also closed out further and continues to point to Europe, assessed at -$0.199/MMBtu,” Afhan added.
Data by Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) shows that volumes in gas storages in the EU declined from last week and were 33.62 percent full on March 26.
Gas storages were 34.02 percent full on March 19, and 58.89 percent full on March 26, 2024.
In Asia, JKM, the price for LNG cargoes delivered to Northeast Asia in May 2025 settled at $13.175/MMBtu on Thursday.
Last week, JKM for May settled at 13.385/MMBtu on Friday, March 21.
Front-month JKM remained the same on Monday and dropped to 13.150/MMBtu on Tuesday, while it rose to 13.200/MMBtu on Wednesday.
State-run Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (Jogmec) said in a report earlier this week that JKM for last week rose to “high-$13s on March 21 from low-$13s the previous weekend (March 14, April delivery).”
“JKM moved slightly in low-$13s range in the first half of the week while waiting for the outcome of the talks between the US and Russia on the war in Ukraine. In the second half of the week, it rose to high-$13s due to the rise in geopolitical risk caused by Russia’s attack on Ukrainian infrastructure,” Jogmec said.
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