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Alright, folks, it’s time to dig into the Q1 2025 earnings from the U.S. oil patch’s main titans: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, and BP.
Following two years of relative market stability, the energy sector has recently been riding a rollercoaster, with Brent crude dipping to the low $60s, refining margins tighter than a rusted bolt, and natural gas prices flatter than a Permian Basin highway. Yet, these companies were able to keep grinding out solid results during Q1, leaning on operational efficiencies, economies of scale, and consolidation targeting the upstream.
Let’s unpack the numbers, strategies, and what’s really going on in this volatile market, with a clear-eyed look at who’s winning, who’s wobbling, and what it means for the future.
Full disclosure here: I used Elon Musk’s Grok 3 tool to help with the research for this piece. It beats all hell out of simple Google searches.
ExxonMobil stormed into Q1 2025 with $7.7 billion in earnings, or $1.76 per share, nosing past Wall Street’s $1.75 expectation.
Revenues held firm at $83.13 billion, but the company’s upstream juggernaut stole the show, cranking out 4.55 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/D), a 20% jump from last year’s 3.78 million, thanks largely to Permian growth from its acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources.
The Permian Basin and Guyana fields fired on all cylinders, boosting upstream earnings 19% to $6.8 billion. Cash flow from operations hit $13 billion, with $8.8 billion in free cash flow fueling $9.1 billion in shareholder returns—$4.3 billion in dividends and $4.8 billion in buybacks.
Refining, though, took a beating, with Energy Products earnings sliding to $827 million from $1.4 billion in Q1 2024, stung by weak industry margins. Cost cuts and favorable timing effects softened the blow, but refining is clearly a sore spot.
But the company’s downstream segment is not sitting still, expanding its China Chemical Complex (1.7 million tons of polyethylene annually) and doubling its Baytown recycling unit to process 80 million pounds of plastic waste yearly.
CEO Darren Woods is betting on high-value products and sustainability to diversify, but let’s be real: with Brent prices shaky, ExxonMobil’s upstream-heavy strategy could hit turbulence if demand falters. Still, the company’s financial discipline and production prowess make it the clear leader among its peers.
Chevron kept pace with solid quarter, posting adjusted earnings of $4.5 billion, or $2.18 per share. That topped estimates of $2.14, though revenues of $47.61 billion fell just shy of $47.88 billion.
Production climbed 7% to 3.35 million BOE/D, a quarterly record in the Permian and boosted by new Gulf of Mexico projects like Anchor and Jack/St. Malo. But earnings dropped from the record $6.5 billion the company recorded in Q3 2023, hit by lower refining margins and the absence of prior tax breaks.
Chevron’s cash flow stayed robust, though it said it will be scaling back buybacks to $2.5–$3 billion in Q2 from $3.9 billion in Q1, a cautious move as oil prices soften.
The $53 billion Hess acquisition remains a thorn, bogged down by ExxonMobil’s arbitration over Guyana assets. If that deal collapses by September, Chevron’s growth plans take a hit, and investors are jittery—hence the 4.5% dividend yield, a juicy 20% higher than ExxonMobil’s 3.7%.
Chevron’s U.S.-focused strategy and low debt-to-equity ratio keep it solid, but the Hess delay and refining woes expose vulnerabilities. The market’s betting Chevron will muddle through, and with its Gulf of Mexico ramp-up targeting 300,000 BOE/D by 2026, it’s got a shot to prove the doubters wrong.
Shell’s Q1 2025 adjusted earnings were a robust $5.6 billion, based on strong performance across its business units. This beat analyst expectations of $5.08 billion.
Based on its strong results, the company announced another $3.5 billion share buyback program, which it expects to complete over the next three months.
Following years of mucking around with allocations of significant capital to wind and solar investments, CEO Wael Sawan’s moving hard back to oil and gas, prioritizing upstream and high-value product sales, much like ExxonMobil and Chevron. But Shell’s European exposure makes it more sensitive to Brent price swings and trade war jitters.
Its 2020 dividend cut still haunts, leaving investors wary of its reliability compared to U.S. rivals. Shell’s operational tweaks—cost cuts and divestments—are keeping it afloat, but it’s playing catch-up with its American peers. The pivot from renewables reflects shareholder pressure for profits over promises, yet it risks leaving Shell flat-footed if globalists in the U.S. and Europe force a restart in energy transition subsidization efforts.
BP is clearly the laggard of this bunch, and no one is really surprised. The company posted what it refers to as underlying replacement cost profits of $1.4 billion, a sharp drop year-over-year, and below expectations of $1.6 billion.
Somehow, embattled CEO Murray Auchincloss classified this as “a great start” in his efforts to re-jigger the company’s strategic approach after activist investor Elliott took a big position in BP stock early in the year.
“We had a great operational quarter. We had our highest upstream operating efficiency in history. Our refineries in the first quarter ran at the best they’ve run in 24 years. We had six exploration discoveries in a row, which is really unusual and we started out three major projects,” Auchincloss said.
Weak refining margins, low natural gas prices, and rising net debt are squeezing BP, and its European base amplifies the pain from Brent’s slide. Following years of renewables investing folly and boondoggles invoked by his predecessor, Bernard Looney, Auchincloss is doubling down on oil and gas, targeting 400,000 BOE/D in the Gulf of Mexico by decade’s end, with new finds like Far South in the southern Gulf of America adding promise.
BP’s shares have lagged the Big Oil pack since 2020, and its sensitivity to oil price dips exposes a shaky core. Its U.S. assets are a bright spot, but without a major shake-up, BP’s stuck in the slow lane. The tariff and trade wars crashing Brent to the low $60s didn’t help, wiping out gains from Auchincloss’s strategy reset.
BP’s fighting to stay relevant, but it’s got the most to prove, and with a current market cap less than half of Shell’s and less than 1/5th that of ExxonMobil, the once-proud British giant is barely hanging on to its “major” status.
The Bottom Line
The respective Q1 results from these four majors paints a clear picture: U.S. majors are outmuscling their European competitors.
ExxonMobil and Chevron are leaning into America’s shale and deepwater strengths, pumping record volumes and keeping costs tight. Their financial flexibility—low debt, hefty cash flows—lets them return billions to shareholders while investing in growth.
By contrast, Shell and BP are saddled with European market woes and their own past missteps, leaving them scrambling to keep up.
Refining margins are a sector-wide albatross, and natural gas oversupply remains the ongoing gut punch it has been for most of the last 15 years, but upstream dominance is carrying the day.
The retreat from renewables by Shell and BP isn’t a cop-out; it’s a nod to reality. The world still needs oil and lots of it, and these companies know it. Demand wobbles in China and OPEC’s production plans could shake things up, but don’t bet against the majors’ ability to adapt. Consolidation definitely looms on the horizon—Chevron’s Hess saga, BP as a takeover target—but regulators and geopolitics could snarl those plans.
ExxonMobil remains the gold standard among this group, with Chevron a close second. Shell is hanging tough, but BP’s got to hustle or risk becoming someone else’s lunch.
Nothing about the oil and gas industry is ever easy. It can be a brutal game, with companies forced to weather constant ups and downs of the boom-and-bust cycles that have characterized the industry since its very founding. More than anything, these Q1 2025 results show that not a lot has really changed about the nature of the business since that Drake well was drilled in Titusville, PA in 1859.
The post Ranking the Major Oil Company Q1 Results appeared first on Energy News Beat.
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