Oil Prices EXPLODE – Where Are They Going Next?

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:00] As tensions in the Middle East go, so do oil prices. Next, on the Energy Newsbeat Daily Standup. [00:00:06][5.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:00:14] What’s going on, everybody? Welcome into the Monday, June 16th, 2025 edition of the Daily Energy Newsbeat Standup. Here are today’s top headlines. First up, Israel targets Iran’s South Paris gas field in escalating airstrikes and Iran retaliates. I mean, this is an unbelievable doozy. Stu, next up is closing the Strait of Hormuz, the apocalyptic scenario for the oil market. I’ll answer that right now. Yes. Next up, automakers pivot to hybrids as EV sales lag behind expectations. And now we pose a question. Will the EV market bifurcate into Tesla versus all the other hybrid manufacturers? Next up friend of the show, David Blackman and his article via The Daily Caller, Trump ends Newsom’s terrible week by killing his EV mandate. And finally, massive fire at Marathon Oil Refinery in Texas sparked supply concerns among consumer and Stu will toss over to me. We will kind of get back to covering what happened in the oil market specifically, what’s going on geopolitically and what that means going forward. We’ll quickly touch on rig count and the frat count spread. And finally BP takeover speculation heats up as UAE oil giant Abu Dhabi national oil company enters the fray for its gas assets. Super interesting article that we will cover all that and a bag of chips folks as always, I am Michael Tanner joined by Stuart Turley. I usually say where do we want to begin, but I think I know where we’re going to begin here. [00:01:42][88.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:42] Let’s start with Israel. Israel targets Iran’s South Parsfield. In escalating airstrikes, Iran retaliates. Michael, I’m having a hard time getting a nailed down on the damage, but let’s go through this. According to the IRGC-affiliated media in Post-On-Ex, the attack targeted critical infrastructure in phase 14 of the South Pars field in BUSHER PROVENCE causing fires, prompting an immediate response from Iranian forces. This is incredibly significant because this also ties to the Leviathan field in Israel has been shut down and that Leviathan Field in the Mediterranean is causing Egypt a gas shortage. Now there is going to be a huge impact to LNG exports from Qatar that is going to be impacted on this. So there are 78 deaths and over 320 casualties so far. And again, we’re not on the edge of that kind of news. We’re here to cover the energy side of this and the operators in the South Pars gas field, Petro Pars leading NIOC subsidiary development and production at phase 14, Iranian offshore engineering. And construction, the IOEC handles the offshore platform. This is going to be a huge issue as it settles out. [00:03:12][89.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:03:12] It’s, I mean, it’s going to be unbelievable. I think everybody who’s in the oil and gas business saw what happened to oil Thursday night when this all took, or I think it was Wednesday. Was it Wednesday or Thursday night? I think was [00:03:23][10.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:24] Wednesday night and Thursday and it’s about another two weeks it’s going to take to isolate out. I saw General, I believe it’s King, on Maria Bartiromo this morning on the Sunday show or yes yeah when we filmed this is Sunday and he was basically saying that they are going after the energy. If he says they’re going after energy the oil and gas depends on how far they take out. Let’s go to that in the next article. Is closing the Strait of Hormuz the apocalyptic scenario for the oil market? Michael, you kind of laughed and said yes. The Strait Hormuza narrowed 21 mile passage between Iran and Oman, the world’s most critical choke point for oil and liquefied natural gas trade, often described as the jugular vein of global energy. It facilitates the flow of roughly 20% of the world’s oil and a quarter of its LNG. I think that is, but I also included a post in this article as I wrote that. How likely will WTI get how high and is right now it’s predicting $94.10 is on this betting app. So key customers hit China India Japan Europe This is turning out to be pretty bad, if Iran threatens to go through with this, dude. [00:04:49][85.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:04:50] Well, I mean, this is, I love this little tweet you put in here, the oil prediction tweet, because it truly goes back to a little bit of like what you’re saying. Hey, I think oil is going to hit a hundred. Now I’ll cover a little of, of where oil prices might go in my segment, but this goes to show you the one it won. What we’re seeing is the, is the geopolitical volatility built in. So you now see, you can now accurately see that there was about a $7 basically geopolitical factor built into this. Now, it depends what Iran does in response. They’ve done a little bit. Does this all out escalation? Does the U.S. Get involved? There’s a lot we could cover. And Stu, like you said, we want to focus on energy. But if the Strait of Hormuz shut down, like, you said that there’s 17 to 21 million barrels per day that flow through that strait, which is, as you accurately pointed out, about 20 30% of the global supply. Which if you just do the math on that, you end up in that 90 to $95 range, and this oil betting, y ou know, Kalishi odds has it at 94, which is at the upper end of that range. So it’s not far off. Now, do I think these straight over moves will actually be shut down? I don’t think so. I don’t think it would happen. I think it’d be disastrous. I think the market. Dynamics, understand the apocalyptic nature of what that means. So I don’t think they will do it. But if they did, I mean, I didn’t think Israel was going to bomb Iran, and we wake up Wednesday night and all of a sudden rockets are flying. [00:06:25][95.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:26] Well, here’s my take, under president Trump in his first term, Iran was down to 200,000 barrels per day estimate somewhere around in there. Under the Biden administration’s debacle of a presidency, they got up to 3 million barrels per day. They funded $800 billion worth of whatever the number is, unbelievable amount of wealth that they generated under President Biden. Now, if they take out those 3 million barrels per day. That would probably keep us in the $80 range. If we get the geopolitical stabilization, we’re gonna probably level out at 70, 75, but the straight of hormones, if that thing is absolutely wiped out, all bets are off. I mean, it could be a short spike way over 100, and then everybody panics, and then demand destruction kicks in, and then the price comes back down. So all I can say is buckle up, get a G suit, it’s going to be a rough ride. [00:07:36][69.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:36] It is. Now, one thing quickly before we jump to point out, it’s not just oil that flows through the strait of Hormuz. It’s 25% of LNG to customers across Asia, Europe, and beyond. So you think in Europe, you think you’re already paying higher prices for energy? Buckle up, as Stu would say. If this were to happen, natural gas prices and the spot price would go through the roof for LNG. [00:08:00][24.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:01] And I saw President Zelensky meme on President Zelansky. He’s like Putin very very bad man and now nobody loves me. They’re not going to pay any attention. Zelenski honestly is in trouble. We don’t want two wars and then we have all of the Democrats funding all of these no king protests all over the place. That is a whole other thing. We don t need three wars. Let’s go to David Blackmon. David Blackmon Trump ends Newsom’s terrible week by killing his EV mandate. This is an outstanding article on the Daily Caller from David Blackman. I recommend following him both on his sub stack as well as the Daily caller. He’s also got a great couple articles in Forbes as well too. This week just passed a rough one for California Governor Gavin Newsom. Early in the week Newsom complete lack of leadership in his home state combined with a their election of duty by Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass to justify President Donald Trump’s move to activate both the National Guard and 700 U.S. Marines, who they have not fed in about three weeks, and they need raw meat. So good luck there. Under this previous administration, the federal government gave right-wing radicals in California dictator powers to control the future of the entire car industry over the country,” Trump said in remarks preceding the signing. It’s been a disaster for this country. I couldn’t agree more. Governor Newsom, you are an absolutely despicable leader. [00:09:36][94.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:37] Yeah i mean he’s he’s really he i mean and and what’s funny is about six months ago he was trying to make the pivot to the center you know he was having on all these week you know is having all these right wing people on his podcast trying to play himself down the middle way but he truly has come up with Trump deranged Gavin [00:09:54][17.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:54] This is Gavin calling in. He’s calling in, no, Gavin. Sorry, Governor, you cannot come on this podcast. Sorry. Have a great day. [00:10:01][7.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:10:02] He’s got to clean up the oil slick that’s going on outside because he decided to go swim in some water. I mean, the fact that, again, I come back to, if EVs are going to win, they need to win without subsidies. It’s one of the reasons why, ironically, Elon was a little mad, because he deep down knows that for electric vehicles to work and be competitive, they need to have these subsidies. And that was one of the nice things that wasn’t, And it’s one of the few things that… Got taken out of the big, beautiful bill was these EV subsies. About everything in the kitchen sink was also in it. Now, I think some people might accurately, and I don’t want to maybe accurately, it’s the wrong word, would point out that there may be a, there’s an externality associated with fossil fuel vehicles, which is the quote unquote carbon emissions. Now we can dismantle that all day long from a standpoint of the amount of emissions that are coming from. Companies doing things with coal and all that jazz. I mean, you know the what’s going on with cars isn’t dropping the bucket compared to all that stuff Yeah, so but [00:11:05][62.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:05] Sorry, I just say this, you’re teeing it up for the next article. The automakers pivot to hybrid sales as EV sales lag behind expectations. Will the EV market bifurcate into Tesla versus all the other hybrid? I think your points are spot on, Michael. [00:11:21][15.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:22] Yeah, let’s just jump to that one. Let’s go. [00:11:23][1.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:24] Let’s go. I’ll tell you, I wrote this one and it was a lot of fun. And when you sit back and take a look, EV sales are in the market now. Listen to this. In 2025 Q1, ICE sales are now 78% of the market. That’s down from 80%. And where is it being picked up from? Hybrid sales hybrid i did not realize was really starting to kick in into the millions of units in 2024 hybrid sales was 1.5 million units ice sales was 12.6 million evie was 1 2 million or 7.7% hybrids 9.6% and the ice sales ice was 80% Now you’re looking at hybrid sales at 13 and EV sales are still at the 7.9 percent. So I think hybrid is just now gearing up. [00:12:24][60.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:24] No, I completely agree with you, and I mean that chart you’ve got in the article is kind of crazy. And we’ve been on this for a year now, you know, we’ve put our stake in the ground. We believe hybrids are going to outlast EVs from the standpoint of it’s what a battery is designed to be a backup power, and it’s a hybrid, it’s backup power. It increases your fuel efficiency so you can get a lot more miles out of a single tank of gas. It allows you to be less harsh on your engine because you’re able to do a lot of other things that are very interesting. So, I mean, we put our flake in the ground. Now, luckily, the data is rolling back in and the cost of an EV is a lot higher than your cost of a hybrid. [00:13:05][40.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:13:06] Exactly. And, and I added in here because I’ve been looking at day trading on Tesla, and I think that Tesla is still going to be a great buy. I don’t give investment advice. However, Tesla is not an EV company by itself. I think they will be the sole US manufacturer of 100% EVs. I think they’re going to the last man standing. [00:13:31][25.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:32] Don’t take your day trading advice from Stu. I promise, promise you that. All right, let’s move to this last one here in this fire in the marathon. [00:13:38][6.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:13:38] Oh, this is a heartbreak. For Texas City, Texas, a massive fire erupted at Marathon Petroleum’s Galveston Bay refinery in Texas City sending back plumes of thick toxic smoke into the sky and prompting a shelter-in-place order for residents on Highway 146 Bay Street. Been there. The Galvestin Bay refineries, one of the largest in the United States, processes up to 593,000 barrels of crude per day. Producing gasoline distillates, diesel, aromatics, heavy fuel oil, dry gas, grade coke, and propylene. It is three percent of the U.S. Refining capacity. I think I saw something on there saying that could bump diesel and gasoline in Texas heavily. [00:14:25][46.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:25] Yeah, I mean, it definitely will. We, you will see a pinch in gasoline prices, not just because of the, the spike that from this Iran, Israel tip for tat bombing, but what you, but to double down, this will cause gasoline prices to definitely increase how much, who knows, but as we move into the summer driving season, which we kind of probably already there, it’s only going to squeeze those gas prices more. And, you know, it was going to make for a super interesting summer. As you mentioned, Stu, that’s. You know about two hundred fifty to three hundred thousand barrels per day or about ten point five to twelve point six million gallons daily which is enough for a little over a million vehicles per day and about a hundred thousand to a hundred fifty thousand of diesel which really is what affects prices you wanna you wanna know what’s the biggest cost for the rise of the price of goods well one of the key inputs is trucking and trucking comes down to diesel [00:15:20][54.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:20] Let me add this, guess where California is buying 70% of their oil. They don’t get it from Alaska anymore. Russia? They don t drill their own. They get it from Iraq and Iran and China. 70%. That s nice. The Hormuz problem, Israel, Iraq, bombing. Bad for California. Holy smokes. Governor Newsom. Is absolutely got a disaster on his hands. Can’t you tell we just love California? I love California, I just don’t like him. [00:15:55][34.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:55] No, absolutely. [00:15:56][0.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:57] All right. Let’s jump over and quickly cover finance, guys, before we do that. Let’s quickly pay the bills. As always, thank you for checking us out. World’s greatest website, energy newsbeat.com. Hit that description below for all links to the timestamps, links to articles. Check us out, theenergynewsbeat.substack.com, a great place to support the show, whether you sign up for a free or a paid subscription. We really appreciate all the support there. We’re dropping a lot of content that you can ONLY Substack. It’s a lot of analysis. You go to our energyuseb.com. We’re going to show you the news. We’re gonna give you a little bit of wondering how that pertains to you, whether you’re in the investing space, whether in the oil and gas space. But Substack, what it’s gonna do is it’s gonna give a lot analysis and it’s a great place to support the show. Appreciate everybody who has subscribed there. We’d also like to quickly shout out Reese Energy Consulting for sponsoring and making this show. Possible we really appreciate their support guys if you are in the midstream space, and you’re not working with Reese energy consulting you’re doing yourself a disfavor whether you are two guys in a garage or you’re a Law or whether a fortune 50 publicly traded company They have worked with everybody in between and have the ability to make your life easier check them out Reese energy Consulting calm tell them energy news been beat sent you it’s a great great way to support them and support the show and finally guys If you’re wondering whether or not it’s the right time to put oil and gas in your portfolio, you might be thinking that now that there’s a war going on in the Middle East, right, wrong, or indifferent. That’s what you might thinking. Check out investinoil.energynewsbeat.com for an oil and gasoline portfolio survey. Fill it out, and then we will send you a bunch of information, specifically an e-book on what it looks like to invest in oil and gasses and point you in the right direction based upon your responses, guys. So that’s investin oil.energy newsbeat. Com or hitting the link in the description. Below,. [00:17:51][114.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:17:52] But Stu, let’s just run through quickly, top line headline or top line indices on Friday, S&P 500 down about 1.3 percentage points, Nasdaq down 1.29 percentage point, two and 10 year yields jumped about a percentage point. Dollar index up about three-tenths of a percentage, Bitcoin dropped all the way down to 105,000, which is interesting, you would have thought with the craziness going on with what’s going on, with Israel and Iran, Bitcoin would rise, but it’s and now a hundred and five thousand Sitting there, crude oil, I mean, what’s to say? Top line headline up 7.6 percentage points or $4.94 on Friday, closing up at basically at $73. The open here in about an hour or so looks to open about 73.18. So even higher Brent oil is up to 74.65 natural gas, $3.58. But guys, unbelievable what happened, you know, Thursday night rolling into Friday. Oil settles up 7% as again, as everybody now knows, Israel went ahead and struck Iran, mainly targeting their nuclear stuff. As we mentioned in the open, there is some oil export terminal being targeted. Right now, as on Friday, there were no oil flow impacts. So what you saw with that 7% spike was mainly a What I call that geopolitical impact risk of what might happen if all of the sudden all out war broke out in the middle East. I think what you’re seeing now is with what’s happened this weekend. I think you’re a much, much more targeted oil attack. So I think that will, that will will change. [00:19:38][105.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:19:38] You know, otherwise we did see rig counts dropped by four on, on Friday, we did the frat count spread dropped by for on Sunday, so a pretty unbelievable, you know, drop from both rig count and frat count spread. It’ll be interesting to see how those things change relative to what we’re seeing here. If now oil, the new floor is 70, based upon what’s going on in the Middle East, it may allow more drillers to come back and enter in, so we may see rig counts flip. I think an interesting note, Stu, we did see 24 rigs in Canada get added on Friday, so that is a huge, a huge interesting knock. I think the the difference is Canada has a little bit lower breakeven prices now it’s a little bit harder to drill wells in Canada for a variety of reasons but they have much lower brekeven prices so if you’re a company that operates both in Canada and the United States, shifting your drill schedule around might make more sense. Final thing I want to cover BP takeover speculation heats up as UAE oil giant ADNOC or the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company enters the for gas assets, you know, as we’ve kind of talked at Nausium. Here in the finance segment over the last couple of months, Stu. BP is definitely looking to sell. And there’s a couple different companies kicking the tires. You’ve got Shell, Exxon, and Chevron, who have all been linked to potentially taking over the total assets. But as of Friday, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company jumped into the mix, really mainly looking to acquire their LNG assets while they’ve also told them they are maybe interested in just lying the whole thing. Outright which I mean you want to talk about the you think it’s going to take a while for Chevron Hess and Exxon to work out through an intermediary I think the you know the whatever the Federal Trade Commission is in the UK is going to have a field day with this one and I would be very interested to see if a full takeover is even possible it seems much more likely that they just go get their LNG assets as we know most of these gulf states have gone all in on LNG we’ve talked. At nauseam about how Qatar has lined up and basically been signing a 30 year LNG agreements with multiple countries. Saudi Aramco has done the same thing. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has done same thing and this would only move to bolster. Obviously, everybody is saying no, this isn’t going to happen. What’s interesting is Abu Dabhi National oil company would would most likely do this deal through their international unit which is known as XRG and a little twist in here former BP CEO Bernard Looney who had a who left under under let’s just say interesting circumstances with some chicanery going on with someone who worked for him I’ll let you guys Google and put those pieces together he sits on XRGs board and so he may have a little bit of inside knowledge, relative to… Where these assets are obviously, you know, sitting on the board is a little bit different than sitting in kind of the CEO position from the standpoint of you’re not necessarily pulling the day-to-day strings, but you can be from a high level pushing it. I love this quote from quilter Chevrolet or, or an analyst out of quilter chevrolet, his name is Marzullo Corelli. He said that their interest in the BPS is significant and will drive the price upward. The rest of his quote is that says it’s likely. That ADNOC would consider a full bid for BP as a whole, given the company would not be strategically interested in BP’s oil assets, few other listed oil managers might be. So I agree with that sentiment. I have a hard time seeing how they’re gonna bid on the whole thing. Obviously from an oil asset standpoint, true, but I also think from a regulation and a regulatory standpoint, they also know they’d never be able to get it through. So I think taking out their LNG assets is much more strategic, but very interesting. There’s a lot going on with BP and we could be sitting here a year from now and BP literally could not exist in the form it exists now, whether a complete takeover or a complete bifurcation of their assets. So that’s all I’ve got to do. My favorite part of the week, what’s keeping you up at night this week? [00:23:46][247.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:23:46] Well, this week is wondering how much of the Iranian oil and gas assets are going to be destroyed by Israel, because that is going to critical. But on this BP takeover story that you’re talking about, I’m going to add some things to this story, and that is, would it be better for the BP as a corporation to move to the US before they started piecemealing everything out? Because if they went to the U.S. Stock market and moved as a corporation to the US, I think they’d make more money for their shareholders. [00:24:21][34.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:24:22] No, it’s really true. So I think it’s going to be fascinating to see what happens. We appreciate everybody who starts their week with Energy Newsbeat. Again, hit that description below. Sign up for our sub stack, investinoil.energynewsbeat.com. For Stuart Turley, I’m Michael Tanner. We’ll be with you all this week, guys. It’s going be crazy. We’ll see you tomorrow. [00:24:22][0.0][1439.5]

The post Oil Prices EXPLODE – Where Are They Going Next? appeared first on Energy News Beat.

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