Oil AGAIN Bulls Die On The Vine

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:00] Oil bulls die on the vine again. Next on the Energy Newsbeat Daily Standup. What’s going on everybody. [00:00:12][12.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:00:13] Welcome into the Tuesday, June 7th, 2025 edition of the Daily Energy Newsbeat Standup. Here are today’s top headlines. First up, Trump reveals Iran would quote, like to talk about a nuclear deal since they are not winning the war against Iran. That’s about as a Trump quote as it gets. Next up, naval forces see minor cargo dip via oil choke point. The news straight what this means for energy investors next up. By our friends out there at Rystad Oil Prices to remain below $80 despite escalating Middle East tensions. And finally, or next up, the greatest oxymoron statement of all time, quote, renewable energy. And then finally, total energies expands into Malaysia with petro-nosteal, Stu will then toss for me. I will quickly cover what happened in the oil and gas markets and mainly cover where oil might be going relative to what we’re seeing now. We will cover all that in a bag of chips. As always, I am Michael Tanner, joined by Stuart Turley. Where do you wanna begin? [00:01:11][58.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:12] Hey, let’s start with our buddy, President Trump. President Trump reveals Iran would like to talk about a nuclear deal since they’re not winning the war against Israel. This is critical, Michael, because when you sit back and take a look, breaking Iran wants to deescalate hostilities with Israel and negotiate as long as the United States does not join the attack, according to the Wall Street Journal. Wall Street journal, Iran has urgently been signaling it now seeks an end to the hostilities. Yay. I think that is fantastic. This actually ran from the New York post and it’s one of the first time we’ve run a story from the new York post in a long time, but I thought it was important enough in order to do that, that, Hey, I don’t want to war. We don’t wanna be there. I don’t think most Americans don’t. Want us to be there? [00:01:59][47.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:00] Yeah, no, I mean, I think, you know, Iran smartly understands that getting the United States involved may not end well for them. And that has some definitely significant impacts to the oil business, which we will see mainly quote, we need peace. Let’s move to this next one though. Cause I think this one is just as important. [00:02:17][17.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:02:18] I absolutely, you bet. And Naval force sees minor cargo dip via oil choke point on a straight of Hormuz what it means for energy investors. This is a very big story. When you take a look at the traffic monitoring group that is out there doing this right now, this, we mentioned this on yesterday’s podcast. And this is very important to say that they only got rafts and dinghies and they only get like one or two battleships. They’re not going to be able to stop a blockade. And then you take a look at the other story that we just talked about. not wanting to really isolate themselves anymore. So I think that this is absolutely a wonderful story as far as logistics. And guess who would be hurt if the Strait of Hormuz was actually shut down, Michael. It’d be the Asian markets. It’d Be China and California. [00:03:13][55.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:03:15] Say, our favorite governor. [00:03:16][1.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:16] Let’s go to rystad on the next story rice dad oil prices to remain below $80 despite escalating Middle East tensions. I think rice dad has the same idea on this story is that they’re seeing that the there’s everybody is wanting to shut this down except Netanyahu and Israel. So I think the whole rest of the world wants this thing shut down. And I, I couldn’t agree more. Let’s, but I’m, I’m rooting for the Iranian people to have a regime change. I want to be honest with you. Let’s get rid of the clerics that have been bugging us for 40 years and get a regime, change by the people, not the CIA. [00:03:59][42.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:04:00] Yeah. I mean, I tend to agree again with Rice dad’s analysis here. And I think the funny part is too, you were the one calling for $80 oil, and yet you’re agreeing right here with rice dad. But I think what this means, you know, from an investment standpoint, This is why gambling on tensions and war and things that are geopolitically out of your control is a bad idea because you really never know where they’ll go. On Thursday night, everybody thought oil was going to go to a hundred. As it sits today. I mean, we’ll cover this. Oil is actually now dropped below 70 reopening after the market rollover at four 15 and we’re now in a standpoint where we may actually just be back down to 65 because it is what it is. Iran is scared. Nobody thought that on Thursday. So. This is where as if you’re an investor and you’re trying to weigh geopolitical risk, it’s easier to just price out geopolitical risk altogether than it is to try to gamble on, Oh, well, it might be 70 if war breaks out. That’s it. I mean, first off, that’s morally, well that’s a little weird to put in there. But second off, it, there’s just no way you’re going to be able to do it. [00:05:10][69.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:10] And when I look at well economics, that’s what I look at. And then when you take a look at the amount of investment that is still needed, Michael, and then you look at demand, there’s a magic formula. And for our reviews, well economics makes a difference because it tells you where you’re going to drill. Let’s go to this next one here. The greatest oxymoron statement of all times. Renewable energy. I absolutely get a chuckle out of my emails from Ronald Stein. He sent this article over and goes, would you mind running this one? I’m like, absolutely. Let’s run this story. Any oxym neuron is a figure of speech where contradictory or opposing words are combined to create a striking. Thought-provoking effect. Examples include deafening silence, organized chaos, perpetual motion machines, and today’s favorite among zero-emission policies, renewable energy. Renewable energy, Michael, also goes with net zero and fiscal failure. So all these go in together. It’s kind of fun. The so-called renewables of wind, solar, And I need to add hydrogen in there only exist in the few wealthy countries that can afford to subsidize an oxymoron fantasy. Well done. And we also have a link in there to the last show with Ronald Stein and Mike Umbro. And we talked about California. [00:06:35][84.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:35] Yeah, absolutely. I mean, it’s, we’ve been saying this for a while now. It truly, truly is an oxymoron from that standpoint. We love them over, you know, we love Ronald Stein. We love Mike Umbro. So I think it’s a, it a great, great thing. It’s just really hard when it’s when, when your entire business is based on subsidies. What do you mean? [00:06:56][20.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:57] Yeah. What do you mean? You know, in fact, I follow this guy on X called retard finders. And if, and if renewable energy was a person, retard finders would be trolling them. So honestly, this, this guy is hilarious. You you’ve got to follow retard finder. Let’s go to the last story. Total energy explains. I never thought I’d have a retard, a shout out to retard finders. Total energy, explains Malaysia with Petronas deal. Michael, this story is important for a couple of reasons. And you take a look at total total energies, as we say here, you know, Oh, it was total energy. Oh, total energy is I was like, did I just poop under rug? Oh no. So net income was 42 billion down from 5.1 billion in Q1 of 2024 due to lower oil prices and weaker downstream performance. And you take a look at how they’ve taken a look of this. Why are they expanding out? Oh, wait a minute. Total energies, Shell and BP are following in the footsteps of the U S oil companies and they’re going after a bigger market share around the world. And they’re expanding into Malaysia to get money back into their thing. Cause Michael, remember the European countries took a left turn to the renewable energize market. And, and they have failed. And so they’re trying to get their money back. And now, when you take a look at why this is, this is really good. The update from LNG prime.com under the deal, total energies will hold alongside Patronus, it’s wholly owned subsidiary, Patronas Cargalli. I hope I got that right. 50% of operating working interest in blocks, SK 301B and SK 313 were significant gas discoveries. [00:08:53][116.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:56] It’s what you’re seeing is the expansion into specifically LNG has been critical and that’s where all of these super majors are going. I mean think about we talked about yesterday what what’s really the prized asset that BP has that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company is looking at. They’re looking at the gas assets. Why was Total Energes And are Jays interested in Malaysia? Well, they’re gas assets, or they’re gas assets specifically through Petronas partnerships. So I mean, the world is moving towards LNG. And again, as a capital allocator, you need to understand that. If you’re investing in heavy oil prospects, you need understand what that means for you. It means there, it may mean that the divestiture market is weakening. Now, that’s on a global scale if you look into equities. Obviously when you get into individual deal by deal, it’s a little bit different. So that’s great. [00:09:46][50.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:46] Let’s just quickly jump over to oil and gas finance too. But before we do that, let’s go ahead and quickly pay the bills as always. Thank you for checking us out. World’s greatest website dot energy, newsbeat.com hit that description and link below for all links to the timestamps, links to the articles, check us out on sub stack of the energy newsbeat dot sub stack.com. It’s the best way to support the show. We roll out a bunch of content that you can only, only find on Substack. Stu writes a great once a day article kind of summarizing what he’s seeing in the oil and gas business. We’ve got a great research tab for paid only subscribers where we dive into a bunch stuff that is specifically to oil and guess investments. So if you’re needing a little bit of help on that standpoint, check that out. TheEnergyNewsbeat.substack.com. Shout out to friends of the show, Reese Energy Consulting. We really appreciate their support. Guys, if you are in the midstream space and you’re not working with. Reese Energy Consulting, you’re doing yourselves a disservice. They work, they worked with clients from two guys in a garage all the way up to the largest publicly traded midstream companies in the business and the largest publicly treated upstream companies because they help you as an upstream company understand where you fit in, in the midstream market. They’re an excellent marketing company. Highly recommend you check that out. Energyconsulting.com. Tell them Energy Newsbeat sent you. And finally, guys, if you’re interested in adding oil and gas to your portfolio, go ahead and check out investinoil.energynewsbeat.com for you to go ahead and lay and fill out a survey, which will tell us whether or not you might be a good fit. And we will send you all the information on how to invest in the oil and gas business and possibly appoint you in the right direction, depending on what you say. We have a great ebook that we’ll send you by good colleague of ours, Paul. So we really, really truly appreciate that. [00:11:29][102.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:29] But Stu, let’s look at top line headlines real quick. S&P 500 up a percent, NASDAQ up about a one and a half percentage points, two and 10 year yields up half a percentage point and a 10th of a percentage points. Dollar index flat, NASDF flat, Bitcoin was actually up three percentage points 108.56. Crude oil drop, you know, was flat on the day, has dropped below 70 as we record this about 515 on the 16th. So, you know, a pretty interesting drop there kind of goes to show you again what we talked a little about. Whereas, you know, if I ran once piece and you’re trying to price in geopolitical risk, you need to know these things natural gas up to three dollars and seventy two cents XOP was up about two tenths of a percentage point up to one thirty three 10. Again, as I mentioned, during the trading day, oil prices fell about a dollar, again, mainly on that fact that Iran wants to seek a truce. Iran asked their Arabian neighbors to continue to press the US and specifically President Trump to seek to push for an Israeli sea fire. The critical key oil export infrastructure, Karg Island, all the other stuff, the Strait of Hormuz was so far spared with, I think, Israel knowing that if they want to send the world into chaos go. Attack those. So they went ahead and did that. You know, that’s really kind of the, the bulk of the territory, you know, a lot of what we saw was, was, was a little bit of overbought territory from a, from a trading standpoint. So it could be very interesting there. But I mean, so that’s all I saw on the news that everybody was digesting that a lot of interesting stuff going on, but kind of a quiet on the oil and gas, M and a front, nothing terribly to report there. What else are we forgetting here before we let everybody go? [00:13:07][98.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:13:08] Nah, I just hope that we can get it into this and that lets it get to president Trump and not go to war. We’ve had about 40 tankers head over 12 hours ago. That’s a, not a good sign when you have that many more tankers going, but it’s also could be pre-positioning to stop anything as well too. So just, I’m hoping for the best. [00:13:31][23.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:32] Fingers crossed. With that, guys, we’re going to let you out of here. Get back to work. Start your day. We appreciate you checking us out here. World’s Greatest Daily Stand-Up, The Energy News Beat Daily Stand-up for Stuart Turley, I’m Michael Tanner. We’ll see you tomorrow, folks. [00:13:32][0.0][801.7]

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