Sanctions Pushback

High-level officials from China, Russia, and Iran convened in Beijing on Friday to call for an end to U.S. sanctions on Tehran over its advancing nuclear program.

“[T]he relevant parties should be committed to addressing the root cause of the current situation and abandoning sanction, pressure, or threat of force,” Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu read from a joint statement, adding that dialogue based on “mutual respect” is the only viable path forward.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi proposed a five-point plan for “the proper settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue.” His proposal includes ending sanctions, restarting multinational talks, and using the 2015 Iran nuclear deal as the basis of future negotiations.

The proposal is likely to face U.S. pushback. President Donald Trump withdrew Washington from the 2015 deal during his first term, arguing that it was not restrictive enough on Tehran’s nuclear program and that the sanctions relief that it provided was enabling Iran to fund its proxy groups, such as Hamas and Hezbollah.

Trump wrote to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last week in an effort to jump-start new talks. “There are two ways Iran can be handled: militarily, or you make a deal,” Trump said at the time. And on Thursday, the Trump administration issued new sanctions on Tehran as part of the U.S. president’s “maximum pressure” strategy, which is aimed at forcing Iran back to the negotiating table.

But Iran’s leadership seems disinclined to talk to Washington. “When we know they [the United States] won’t honor it, what’s the point of negotiating?” Khamenei said on Wednesday, adding to previous comments that he is not interested in talks with a “bullying government.”

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi maintained on Friday that the country’s nuclear program is “peaceful in nature.” But the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) remains concerned. According to the IAEA’s most recent quarterly reports, Iran now enriches uranium at up to 60 percent purity. The agency believes that within a few weeks, Iran could reach the 90 percent weapons-grade level enrichment threshold. Under the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran was only allowed to enrich uranium up to 3.67 percent purity.

A closed-door meeting this week with six members of the United Nations Security Council to discuss Tehran’s nuclear program drew ire from Iran, which said that the session was a “misuse” of the council’s purpose. Yet as FP’s Lili Pike noted, Iran was willing to participate in Friday’s nuclear talks in Beijing with China and Russia, as both are close partners of Tehran’s.

As for why China is taking such a direct interest in nuclear diplomacy with the country right now: “The potential risk of a military conflict over the Iranian nuclear crisis could introduce so much regional instability and chaos that could further disrupt China’s geo-economic and geopolitical interests,” Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s nuclear policy program, told Pike. “More nuclear confrontation among more nuclear-armed countries is not necessarily good news for any future leader of the international system,” Zhao added.