Week Recap: The State of U.S. Energy: Oil, Gas, and Policy Shifts Under the Biden Administration

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Highlights of the Podcast

00:07 – Intro

00:58 – Reserve Refill Begins

04:16 – Canada Warns Trump

06:40 – Strong UK Energy

08:33 – UK AI Struggle

10:47 – Energy Sec’s Policy Shift

13:22 – Cheniere LNG Expansion

14:52 – Oil/Gas Price $$

17:49 – Sheffield: PXD Out of Inventory

22:12 – Outro

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner [00:00:07] what’s going on everybody welcome into a special weekly recap edition of the daily energy news beat stand up here on this gorgeous March 15th 2025 gorgeous Saturday we appreciate all of you who have stuck with us through the week if you had not had a chance to listen we have a great great recap episode lined up the team has gone through and found some great clips from the entire week do hold it held it down for a couple solo shows. We talked about Scott Sheffield and the tier one inventory. The team better put that one in this because man, unbelievable guys. We’ll keep that and we’ll keep this intro short so you can get to it guys. But as always, check us out, energynewsbeat .com. Thank you to sponsor the show, Reese Energy Consulting. And as always guys, investinoil .energynewsbeat .com to become Billy Bob Thornton from Land Man. But Stu, I’m gonna kick it over the team. We’ll see you on Monday folks.

Stuart Turley [00:00:58] The strategic petroleum reserve. This article came from one of my favorite guys on the planet. He is David Blackmon’s substack. This is an outstanding article on the SPR. And Michael, I just want to tell you that it was treasonous of the Biden administration to deplete the SPR because the SPR, the strategic oil reserve was created in the seventies by Congress. and Richard Nixon in response to the first Arab embargo but the Arab David points out very you know in this article the salt caverns and the storage system cannot handle much more it’s only good for two to four in and out refills and they’ve been using this as a piggy bank for votes to get the oil prices down So let’s go through some of the numbers real quick. So when you take a look at it, the SPR has a total capacity of 797 million barrels of oil, which is 33 days of U .S. consumption, but it’s about four months of U .S. crude imports because –

Michael Tanner [00:02:12] And I think that’s a critical piece to point out, that everyone says, well, it’s only 30 days of consumption. Yes, but we also make a majority of our own oil here, meaning that really what we’re trying to do is make sure that imports will go to zero. We’ve got a four to six month backstop, in this case four months.

Stuart Turley [00:02:33] And you’re having to understand that the reason that we import is to blend for our refineries because of the lack of investments in upgrading the refineries to being able to use our own oil. So when you take a look at that Biden people desperate to mitigate losses in the 2020 midterm elections chose to draw down the reserve to the 340 million barrels. Right now it only holds just around 395 million barrels. Now Reuters put out that it is going to take years and Chris Wright is looking at about 20 billion dollars to fill this. Could take 10 years. But I think legislation has to be put in where this is no longer a piggy bank for political gain.

Michael Tanner [00:03:25] well i completely agree with you the real question is what is doge think of this we’re trying to cut slice and dice everything out of the budget the question is are you gonna be able to find twenty billion if you need to take thirty percent of the budget and chop and chop thirty percent of the budget off are we gonna find twenty billion i would argue we need to the question is where is it going to come from what piggy bank is it going to come from i think we’ll be able to fight about it would be very interesting to see what you want to do it if they’re able to fit this in cuz i agree with you we need this it’s a critical for both national security uh… it’s critical for energy security about and i but i hope it doesn’t get acts when it when Doge comes around to it.

Stuart Turley [00:04:03] It’s going to be short -sighted. And so I think this is just as critical for president Trump in this house and Senate to get done as well as voting reform. I put these two equally up there. So let’s go to the next story here. You can’t buy this kind of entertainment, Michael. Canada’s final US energy tariff warning to Donald Trump. We’re filming this on Sunday morning. A snowy Mexican standoff, a snow Mexico standoff, Mexican standoff. I get tickled when everybody’s calling Canada and they snow Mexico. So here’s where it is. Doug Ford is the prime minister up there and we have a lot of customers that are going to be impacted on this. Canada will A 25 % energy flowing into parts of U .S., Ontario premier Doug Ford said as U .S. President Trump Ford plows on with his trade war, and I guarantee you, listen to this, the 25 % tariff from Ontario hits 1 .5 million homes in Michigan, New York, Minnesota. It’s a retaliation move against U .S. levies. Ontario’s premier Doug Ford is pushing ahead on Monday. Uh, this is going to affect grid reliability and I think it’s really stupid to get into a fight with president Trump.

Michael Tanner [00:05:30] yeah i i i do think that this is going to hurt energy prices i do think the markets are are in a little bit of uh… they’re a little bit in limbo right now with you know tariffs are on tariffs are off we’re going to do this then we’re going to do that really what what what the markets need is a signal this is what we’re going to do we’re going to stick to it if we’re going to put tariffs on stick with them the the idea that they’re on then they’re off then they’re back on like a high school relationship it does not give the markets the the clarity that it needs and we saw all last week not just with oil prices with the overall markets of itself they were up they were down really on the backs of a lot of this stuff so i really hope both can in the u s can come together come to some sort of agreement and if that’s a reciprocal tariff ten percent each going one way and going out i’m fine with that i’m not anti -tariff i am very anti on off on off of the again it’s like we’re in a high school relationship here

Stuart Turley [00:06:23] I couldn’t agree more, Michael, and I’m going to give President Trump a little bit of room because we’ve had 70 years of inequitable trade balances he’s trying to fix. So I’m willing to hang with him.

Michael Tanner [00:06:37] You’re siding with Trump?

Stuart Turley [00:06:40] Hey, let’s go to the Uk oil and gas, too legit to quit. The Labor government under Keith Starmer has upheld its promise to halt oil and gas exploration, but is now allowing tiebacks, connecting new reserves to existing fields. Seems like a sleight of hand here. When the Labor Party, Keith Starmer, won the latest Uk elections, it vowed to stop new oil and gas exploration. But if you’re in the general area and you think that there’s oil, they’re in such an energy crisis that you’re going to see this sleight of hand coming around. With the green energy policies, we see deindustrialization. With the green energy policies, I’m just releasing the george macmillan article and it is on if you go to energy newsbeat .co and then go to the upper left search for george macmillan you’ll see on there it’s called the 7p plan how the left got here from the 60s to now it is all part of the plan so if you think that you’re a green energy person you’re actually being manipulated it’s pretty cool to see that The government acknowledges that changes to the oil and gas fiscal regime in recent years have led to a period of uncertainty in the sector and its investors. Treasury said in a statement, this is the UK’s treasury, that part of the consultation part papers, yet another good sign for the UK’s energy. They’re going to stop the windfall profits tax after 2030. They’re not going to have an oil and gas industry by then. They’re absolutely going to go out. People are going to oil and gas companies are going to be fleeing the UK, staying in the UK for some entertainment. Let’s go to UK pivot to AI is doomed from the start. This is by David Gerard, author of the book, Attack of the 50 -foot Blockchain and Cryptocurrency and Blockchain News of the same title. This is pretty funny. Government bureaucracy generates paperwork, and even more paperwork, when it’s computerized. But human judgment is expensive. What if a computer could go through the paperwork instead? Well, I’m going to just say this right here. I like the idea. We’ve found that Doge has gone through the United States system, but it’s who is programming the AI. The AI that I’ve seen can be just as corrupt as people. Now if it’s a tool and it’s a search algorithm, so let’s say that you’re Nancy Pelosi. Just as an example, and you go out and you do an investment and you start going through in saying, how does this play in? AI can go through and then take a look at your bank account, cross reference, and do that kind of stuff, but it’s who’s driving that that you really have to take a look at to see whether or not corruption is going on. I think that this author has got some really good points on here. Starmer’s press release claims the International Monetary Fund estimates that AI will improve productivity by 1 .5 % per year. But this turned out to be far from an IMF report that was skeptical of Goldman Sachs report making this claim. The Goldman Sachs report says that electricity and personal computers raise GDP by this much. I’m going to throw this squirrel into this argument, and that is when you sit back and take a look at the amount of power that AI is going to take, the amount cost, the amount of development, the amount of data centers. And UK has been now urged with the left, you know, under the left’s policies and even their right wing supposedly conservative have been acting like left and they’ve been deindustrialized. So they are not going to have the money resources or the capability of implementing AI credibly. So buckle up for the UK or energy secretary. to shatter Biden’s climate shackles, unleash the US energy boom. Chris Wright is, again, the right man for the right job, and he is Chris Wright. So slam Biden’s climate policies, vowing that Trump will admin will prioritize energy, prosperity, and scientific realism. He characterized the Biden administration’s manical focus on the climate change as counterproductive and improvising ordinary people, pledging to take a radically different approach than his predecessor by unleashing U .S. and energy private sector. The previous administration’s climate policies are horrible. There are no winners in that world except the politicians and rapidly growing interest groups. the only interest groups that we’re concerned about with is the American people. Our focus is steadfast on the American people and our allies abroad. Chris Wright, I absolutely love that saying the only interest group that we are concerned about with is the American people. Oh my goodness, that is refreshing. The Trump administration will treat climate change for what It is a global. physical phenomenon. That’s a side effect of building the modern world. That’s an interesting way to put it. And I kind of agree with it. The Trump administration is moving forward and will end the Biden administration’s irrational, quasi -religious policies on climate change. And I think that this is going to be something that we’re going to see in the few months and that is additional graft and greed and corruption that net zero that the climate policies have done and they’ve been done intentionally. Yesterday I released the 7p podcast. It was the podcast where George Macmillan, and I talked about how we got here. And how we got here is by design since the 60s to turn this into the left plan, to turn this into a communist regime. And we almost failed hats off to secretary, right. And I really applaud him. You have to understand how we got here, but yet more importantly, how we’re going to get out of this problem. And I believe we’re on the right track. Cheniere gets the OK for two more Corpus Christi LNG trains. This is huge. FERC set its approval date at January 10th at a granted application filed by Corpus Christi Liquification and CCL mid -scale in March 2023. Man, since March of 2023 to get an approval process done? Hey, way to go Chris Wright. Clear off that desk. The applicants are authorized under section 3 of the NGA to site, construct, and operate the CCL mid -scale trains 8 and 9 project and described and conditioned. This is exciting. Chenier CEO Jeff Fresco recently commented that the company still expects to make final investment decisions to build two more mid -scale trains at Corpus. That’s exciting. Way to go, Chenier! And shout out to our sponsor, gotta pay the bills. The sponsor of the daily show is Steve Reese with Reese Consulting. He let me know that with all of the things going on and the growth in the LNG and natural gas space, that there is a training issue. And if your employees need training, reach out to Steve Reese at Reese Consulting, ReeseEnergyConsulting .com. They are fabulous, but if you are in looking to sell natural gas, if you’re looking to buy or put in a power plant, you need Reese Consult.

Michael Tanner [00:14:52] So markets are still open, but they’re up so far about a half a percentage point in the S &P 500 Nasdaq jumped about 1 .4 percentage points a lot of that’s because Tesla’s swinging back Heavily after getting pounded the last three or four days Two and ten year yields up eight tenths of a percentage point and four tenths of a percentage point respectively dollar index flat Bitcoin eighty two thousand dollars basically flat crude oil up about a dollar fifty to sixty seven seventy five That’s about two point two percentage points Brent oil basically flat at $71, and natural gas tumbles 7 percentage points to $4 .12. So natural gas guys go from happy to sad. It’s a tough business to be in that natural gas game. Myself, you know, when we go look at what’s driving oil prices, you know, it’s mainly tight U .S. supplies with the fact that we have seen crude oil inventories come back The EIA did drop their crude oil inventory report this morning, and they said that crude stockpiles rose by about 1 .4 million barrels, which is actually less than the expected 2 billion barrel bill that we saw the API drop yesterday. So remember what goes on there. We also did see gasoline inventories drop by about 5 .7 million barrels versus the expectation of a 1 .9 million barrel draw. Thank you. Thank you. pretty incredible on distillate stocks dropped a lot more good friend of the show Josh young said this week the oil build was smaller expected gasoline diesel draws were larger than expect this evidence stronger demand it could see oil prices rise as a result he was right there you know we did see inflation some numbers come out after see I US core CPI increase less than expected in February so that’s great we have seen a a pickup in the last few days but potential Russia Ukraine ceasefire Thank you very much. Um, but obviously with fears of recession that that’s going to hold obviously prices and any growth down, but so, you know, I mean, Stu, where are you at with, with, with the recession, you know, is it coming? Should we be worried? Should we not be worried? What do you think?

Stuart Turley [00:16:55] With Doge pulling out as much printed money as they can, that is a naturally occurring thing that will help inflation. Getting chickens to re -breeding and everything else, egg prices will come down naturally. as long as they don’t kill them. I think that if there is a recession, it was teed up by the Biden administration’s overprinting of money. I think that I like what I’m seeing with Chris Wright, Lee Zeldin, and Doug Burgum on all of the energy policies. I think we will see lower prices. We hit President Trump by saying we were going to have half the prices. I think in the red states, we will come close. In the blue states, rats are rucks.

Michael Tanner [00:17:43] yeah absolutely absolutely the only other thing i saw yesterday so we and we have to talk about this scott sheffield one that while now we can’t play the video cuz you to will take it down you’ll be able to watch it you know we’ll lose that that that thirty cents or whatever that we get per video wasn’t that wild? So would we, we, you know, guys, we’re a slim budget here. We had all we can take, but basically he goes on Scott Sheffield goes at a CNBC interview there at Sarah week. Okay. He joins power lunch and the quote Stu is unbelievable. I’ll give you basically the quote was at pioneer, we realized we were out of tier one inventory. and close to being out of tier two inventory. He goes on to say, tier one inventory will be done by 2028 and they’ll be out of tier two inventory by 2032. What? Unbelievable. This is from the same guy that four years ago was quoted as saying, we’ve got a pioneer had a hundred years of inventory. Oh, how the turntables. This guy just nuked. all over exxon stock i mean it’s pretty funny i mean throw out you know whether or not he’s right or wrong this is a revenge play for him in my opinion this is him in my opinion this is him looking at exxon mobile tape well you don’t want to stand up to you know for me when i’m getting left off your board when the f t c is coming after me unfairly well guess what i’m gonna go tell everybody your sixty three billion dollar acquisition was for Four years of inventory. and that’s an interesting thing to stop which socks cuz trust me there’s a reason why it’s called here to a not here one it’s because it’s off the beaten path are you only you only got bad stuff until twenty thirty two and then you’re absolutely cook i was shocked when i That’s an interesting take on it.

Stuart Turley [00:19:32] read this, Stu.

Michael Tanner [00:19:41] but but but what’s that gotta do you yeah because exxon realizes that they got fleeced with pioneer i mean is this the new x t o

Stuart Turley [00:19:49] Could be, but what I’m saying is that the amount of drilling activity, rigs, seismic activity What I’m saying is And everything going on in the Gulf is just going nuts.

Michael Tanner [00:20:01] I mean that’s like me coming out and saying with this show Yeah, we’ve only got about two years left of good shows and then it’s got that it’s gonna fall off a cliff

Stuart Turley [00:20:09] Yeah, Rats and Ruck finding a sponsor at that point.

Michael Tanner [00:20:11] Exactly, it’s gonna be rough finding people to pay. It’s just unbelievable. No, no, we’ve got a hundred years of good shows left.

Stuart Turley [00:20:18] Yeah, we got two million people listening to us already, so we have 8 .5 million transcripts read.

Michael Tanner [00:20:25] Now, on the other hand… On the other hand i think what scott sheffield said was the quiet part out loud there’s not as much great inventory left as people thought and without some technological change without some new innovation without something that is a complete game changer like horizontal drilling or the modern frack it’s going to be hard to find more shale oil i tend to fall in the camp of low prices and low margins leads to innovation Right. There’s the idea of creative destructionism. that industries when they when they tend to die out new people come in and find ways to revive them and increase those margins because now there’s opportunity to do so you know this doesn’t look this doesn’t boat this doesn’t bode well for anybody trying to sell right now i mean he really he really took and he really you know did a number on the m &a markets right now i mean double eagle and the boys over there must be thanking their financial advisors for making them sell out when they did because if they were in the midst of negotiations right now everybody would be re -evaluating every deal that’s in process right now there are in there they’re basically you know it’s it’s defcon one in these war rooms of them try to convince their buyers promise you we still got ten years of invig i mean it’s on believable

Stuart Turley [00:21:47] that still puts more importance on Alaska and the Pennsylvania area in the Marcellus and those kind of areas. I’m of the aspect that there is plenty of oil out there. It’s all financially whether or it’s accessible or permittable but there we are still short four trillion dollars of regular CapEx investment in order to maintain normal decline curves, Michael. I’m bullish on oil.

Michael Tanner [00:22:20] you know i i’m not as bullish issue you know i i i would be hard -pressed to see eighty dollar oil this year i don’t think we will and i think we’re gonna have to learn to live in a lower price in farm which the oil industry can i think you’d you’re gonna see a swing back from four -mile horizontal you know triple frac wells to something that’s a little bit more conservative plays that that you know i i think you’ll see conventional oil come back into in the swing a little bit one of the things i love that we’re doing with Pecos is that we’ve always lived in the conventional vertical space. Meaning we’re set up for times like this, but I mean, no, it’s, it’s, it’s pretty unbelievable. So, um, I

Stuart Turley [00:22:56] Like 32 % returns, by the way, just thought I’d share that

Michael Tanner [00:22:59] Yeah

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